Background:This meta-analytic review is the first to synthesise findings from prospective research on the long-term course of borderline personality disorder in adult clinical populations.Methods:Systematic searches were conducted in Medline, PsycINFO, PsycArticles, PubMed and Scopus within the period 1990-2017. Inclusion criteria were: (1) adult BPD sample diagnosed by a validated, semi-structured interview; (2) at least two prospective assessments of outcomes; and (3) follow-up period ≥ 5 years. Quality of evidence was rated with the Systematic Assessment of Quality in Observational Research (SAQOR). Four outcomes were meta-analysed using mixed-effect methods: remission from BPD diagnosis, completed suicide, depressive symptoms, and functioning. Potential moderators regarding the natural course and the initial treatment received were studied.Results:Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria, with 837 participants from nine countries being followed. Between 50% and 70% of the BPD patients achieved remission in the long-term. Significant reductions in depression and functional impairment were also found. Mean suicide rate ranged from 2% to 5%. Younger age was associated with higher likelihood for remission. Being female was correlated with lower functional improvement. Despite some positive trends, there were no significant associations between treatment moderators and the long-term outcome.Conclusions:Findings suggest that the course of BPD is characterised by symptomatic amelioration and a slight functional improvement in the long-term. Age and gender modulate the long-term prognosis and should be considered to adapt treatment resources. Further research is required to draw robust conclusions on the long-term effects of psychotherapeutic interventions.

The aim of this prospective study was to expand previously reported evidence on the 10-year clinical and functional course of borderline personality disorder (BPD) in a Spanish sample. Participants diagnosed with BPD were assessed at baseline and at 10-year follow-up to evaluate BPD symptomatology and other relevant clinical measures, suicidal behavior, dimensional personality traits, Axis I and II comorbidity, use of mental health resources, and psychosocial functioning. At the 10-year follow up, significant improvements were observed on BPD domains, suicidal behavior, and other clinical measures. Neuroticism, impulsiveness, and aggression-hostility features trended toward normalization, whereas activity and sociability were impaired over time. Comorbidity with Axis I and personality disorders remained high. Social functioning and occupational functioning were largely unchanged. These findings confirm the tendency toward a symptomatic remission of BPD over the long term with regard to symptom criteria and characteristic dimensional traits. However, psychosocial functioning remains impaired.