The need to turn to more environmentally friendly sources of energy has led energy systems to focus on renewable sources of energy. Wind power has been a widely used source of green energy. However, the wind’s stochastic and unpredictable behavior has created several challenges to the operation and stability of energy systems. Forecasting models have been developed and excessively used in recent decades in order to deal with these challenges. Deterministic forecasting models have been the main focus of researchers and are still being developed in order to improve their accuracy. Furthermore, in recent years, in order to observe and study the uncertainty of forecasts, probabilistic forecasting models have been developed in order to give a wider view of the possible prediction outcomes. Advanced probabilistic and deterministic forecasting models could be used in order to facilitate the energy systems operation and energy markets management. This paper introduces an overview of state-of-the-art wind power deterministic and probabilistic models, developing a comparative evaluation between the different models reviewed, identifying their advantages and disadvantages, classifying and analyzing current and future research directions in this area.
A review of state‐of‐the‐art short‐term wind power probabilistic forecasting models is the focus here. The improvement of the accuracy and efficiency of probabilistic forecasting models has been in the centre of attention of researchers in recent years, since the need to further comprehend and efficiently use the uncertainty of forecasts is increasing. Since the optimal operation and control of energy systems and electricity markets is one of the important aspects of performing wind power forecasts, this review focuses in short‐term probabilistic forecasting models, which could prove to be useful in the daily planning and operation of power systems. The short‐term concept of forecasts is analysed in detail, along with the case studies and examples proposed by the reviewed literature. The key advantages and disadvantages of the reviewed probabilistic forecasting methodologies are identified. Furthermore, different classifications of the reviewed works according to the data that are used to provide an accurate forecasting model are also provided. Future directions in the field of short‐term wind power probabilistic forecasting are also proposed.
Deterministic forecasting models have been used through the years to provide accurate predictive outputs in order to efficiently integrate wind power into power systems. However, such models do not provide information on the uncertainty of the prediction. Probabilistic models have been developed in order to present a wider image of a predictive outcome. This paper proposes the lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to directly construct the lower and upper bound of prediction intervals (PIs) via training an artificial neural network (ANN) with two outputs. To evaluate the PIs, the minimization of a coverage width criterion (CWC) cost function is proposed. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm along with a mutation operator is further implemented, in order to optimize the weights and biases of the neurons of the ANN. Furthermore, wavelet transform (WT) is adopted to decompose the input wind power data, in order to simplify the pre-processing of the data and improve the accuracy of the predictive results. The accuracy of the proposed model is researched from a seasonal perspective of the data. The application of the model on the publicly available data of the 2014 Global Energy Forecasting Competition shows that the proposed WT-LUBE-PSO-CWC forecasting technique outperforms the state-of-the-art methodology in important evaluation metrics.
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