During the disaster, a substantial fraction of the 600,000-900,000 tons of released petroleum liquid and natural gas became entrapped below the sea surface, but the quantity entrapped and the sequestration mechanisms have remained unclear. We modeled the buoyant jet of petroleum liquid droplets, gas bubbles, and entrained seawater, using 279 simulated chemical components, for a representative day (June 8, 2010) of the period after the sunken platform's riser pipe was pared at the wellhead (June 4-July 15). The model predicts that 27% of the released mass of petroleum fluids dissolved into the sea during ascent from the pared wellhead (1,505 m depth) to the sea surface, thereby matching observed volatile organic compound(VOC) emissions to the atmosphere. Based on combined results from model simulation and water column measurements, 24% of released petroleum fluid mass became channeled into a stable deep-water intrusion at 900- to 1,300-m depth, as aqueously dissolved compounds (∼23%) and suspended petroleum liquid microdroplets (∼0.8%). Dispersant injection at the wellhead decreased the median initial diameters of simulated petroleum liquid droplets and gas bubbles by 3.2-fold and 3.4-fold, respectively, which increased dissolution of ascending petroleum fluids by 25%. Faster dissolution increased the simulated flows of water-soluble compounds into biologically sparse deep water by 55%, while decreasing the flows of several harmful compounds into biologically rich surface water. Dispersant injection also decreased the simulated emissions of VOCs to the atmosphere by 28%, including a 2,000-fold decrease in emissions of benzene, which lowered health risks for response workers.

We validate a new model for mass transfer and bubble transport for natural seeps on the continental margins using an integrated observation of a seep at 883 m in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In the model, mass transfer is assumed to transition from clean to dirty bubble mass transfer rates following a characteristic hydrate formation time that depends on the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate subcooling. We show that buoyancy-induced upwelling is negligible for the bubble stream. We initialize the model using precise data observed at the seafloor and validate the model results to optical and acoustic measurements within the bubble stream. The model accurately predicts the acoustic attenuation of the bubble flare by lateral spreading and bubble shrinkage throughout the water column. The model shows that up to 99.4% by mass of the released gases from this seep dissolves into the ocean within the hydrate stability zone. Plain Language Summary Natural bubble seepage in the deep ocean is increasingly observed by shipboard surveys using sonars. These acoustic signals of these bubble flares are observed high into the ocean water column, raising the question of what the vertical distribution of natural seep gases, including methane, originating at natural seeps may be in the oceans. Present numerical models of natural seeps cannot consistently predict the observed rise heights of seep bubbles. Here, we validate a new model for natural seep bubbles to an integrated in situ and multibeam survey of a seep site in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Our model assumes that bubbles initially dissolve following convective mass transfer until a hydrate coating slows the mass transfer to rates consistent with solid particles. The characteristic transition time for hydrate formation depends on the initial bubble surface area and a characteristic hydrate formation rate. The model shows that the bulk of the released gases (up to 99.4% by mass) dissolves in the deep ocean, within the hydrate stability zone, and that the model may justifiably neglect other aspects of gas hydrates or buoyancy effects of the rising bubbles. This work is important to understand the role of natural seeps in the oceanic biogeochemical cycling.

Geophysical seismic surveys have been applied to marine geo-site characterization to create images of the complex geological conditions under the seafloor. Accurate knowledge of the ground conditions is critical for geo-risk assessment purposes such as mapping shallow gas hydrate deposits, over-pressured zones, or geological anomalies. Traditional seismic reflection profiling is a relatively fast and flexible method of processing seismic data to recover information on the spatial variation in facies boundaries and subsurface structure. However, the method usually does not provide quantitative information on the composition of the sediments and their physical properties. Seismic inversion is a method to convert the wave signals from time-to space-domain and derive specific material properties by using iterative numerical modeling. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic seismic inversion scheme to recover the vertical profiles of the shallow soil bulk density from marine seismic survey data. This acoustic impedance inversion is based on the geophysical seismic convolution method and the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rj-MCMC) method. The rj-MCMC is a recently developed stochastic sampling technique that allows the modeling to free the number of layers under the seafloor. Hence the number of soil units is estimated from the data in an objective manner. We applied this new approach to a single trace of post-stack seismic data, collected from the Hydrate Ridge area on the west coast of Oregon. Since the purpose of this shallow seismic inversion is to support the design of the offshore foundation, we focused on the relatively short length of seismic signals near the seafloor. The inverted results of the bulk densities along the depth compare well with the field measurements performed at the nearby drilled borehole. This study introduces an advantage of the probabilistic seismic inversion approach to support shallow marine site characterization from low-frequency data, and we discuss the benefits of this new approach on geotechnical site characterization.

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