The processes of forced internal migration, which became significant in 2014 as a result of the armed conflict in the east of the country, caused significant demographic and social changes in the regions performance. Particularly large changes have been taken place in the areas directly adjacent to the joint forces operation zone. The study is devoted to the research of the impact of the described processes on certain aspects of social and economic security of the regions. Impact assessment was performed on the basis of cluster analysis. In particular, the author constructed a neural network such as the Kohonen map. The model divided the neural sample from 25 regions (24 regions and the city of Kyiv) into six clusters according to the level of four indicators of social and economic security. This allowed assessing the impact of forced internal migration on some aspects of social and economic security of the regions. Based on the obtained map, it has been depicted that Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which directly border the joint forces operation zone, had a dramatic increase in the demographic burden and unemployment rate during the study period. The obtained results allowed assessing the impact of the processes of forced internal migration on the dynamics of certain indicators of social and economic security of the territories.
The consequence of the military aggression of the Russian Federation is the loss of control over part of the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The events are accompanied by the objective processes of migration of persons who were forced to leave their permanent residence and move to other regions of Ukraine or abroad. As a result, a new category of citizens who are the internally displaced persons (IDPs) has arrived in the country counting for millions of people. In such circumstances, the study of the interdependence between gross regional product (GRP) and the IDP migration is topical and reflects the ongoing social and economic processes in a big European country. As a result of the study, a two-layer neural network with an error back-propagation model that simulates the nonlinear impact of the number of internally displaced persons on the dynamics of gross regional product has been constructed. According to the number of IDPs, regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, including Kyiv city, are among the first ten regions of Ukraine. Based on the data from the abovementioned regions, we have formed a statistical sampling in order to formulate and test the prospective economic and mathematical model. The study of mutual correlation function graphs by regions has allowed justifying the value of the time lag, which shifts an array of explanatory variables along the time axis, on average, into nine periods (three quarters). According to the results, only for Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv regions, there is a significant correlation between the studied indicators. This conclusion is substantiated in view of the fact that the number of IDPs, in the structure of which only about 23% represents the working age population, impacts the size of the gross product growth in the regions. The abovementioned regions account for 75% of the total number of internally displaced persons. The estimation of the forecast reliability, based on the 2017 data for Dnipropetrovsk region, points to the high accuracy of the developed model. The author of the article has identified specific features that accompany the processes of internal migration of the able-bodied population. In particular, based on the correlation function, the value of the time lag, which is shifted by the effect of IDP movement into a separate region, has been substantiated. The author has developed a neural network which establishes nonlinear regression dependence between the number if IDPs and the dynamics of GRP with high reliability.
Forced migration processes, which started in Ukraine with the collapse of the Soviet Union, have taken new forms and reached their peak with the aggression of the Russian Federation in 2014. Since then, the problem of determining the impact of these processes on the development and security of the country's regions has been particularly relevant. In this regard, the article considers existing methods and international experience of a quantitative assessment of the impact of migration phenomena on the socio-economic development of regions. In addition, the author pays special attention to the identification and justification of the features inherent in internal migration processes, which directly impose restrictions on the quantitative assessment of the impact of these phenomena on the socio-economic development of regions and the obstacles researchers face in this field. Several critical features are determining the requirements for the choice of quantitative methods for assessing the impact of migration processes on regional socio-economic development, i.e., the complexity of establishing a direct relationship resulting from displacement is completely separated from the general societal changes; the impact of displacement will vary depending on several key factors; a high level of subjective judgements and estimations; the research results are sensitive to the level of initial data aggregation, their homogeneity and comparability; the lack of statistical information must be taken into account. A retrospective analysis of existing domestic and foreign approaches to overcome these problems has been carried out. Moreover, their advantages and disadvantages are pointed out. Based on the obtained results, it has been proved that the linear paradigm, which is superior to the classical economic and mathematical methods, is not always applicable. At the same time, the possibility of using modern non-linear approaches such as the theory of open systems, the theory of chaos has been proposed and justified. Furthermore, relevant conclusions have been made, and prospects for further research have been outlined.
In terms of the issues aggravation concerning internally displaced persons and the disproportions in the social and economic development of regions as a result of the antiterrorist operation in Ukraine, an analysis of social and economic transformations in regional development under the migration processes influence and the search for their overcoming mechanisms becomes relevant. The purpose of the article is to analyse the impact of internally displaced persons flows on the social and economic development of regions in order to improve the regional development mechanisms in Ukraine. The research methodology includes a set of scientific research methods that provide a systematic approach to investigating the impact of internally displaced persons on the social and economic development of Ukrainian regions, theoretical approaches to state regulation of internal migration flows in conditions of decentralization of power and reform of public administration in the country. In the course of investigations, the following methods are used: statistical analysis and synthesis while determining the indicators of the IDPs burden on the regional social and economic systems of Ukraine; analysis while studying the main problems of internally displaced persons and their directions; logical synthesis and synthesis while drawing conclusions. The information base for the study consists of the legislative acts of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, statistical and reporting information of the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, development of the UN Agency for Refugees, the UN ReliefWeb Specialized Service for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Inter-Agency Standing Committee, PROMAN, NGO "Labor and Health Social Initiatives", Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union, research results of domestic and foreign scientists. Results. The article deals with the issues of effective reforming of regional development mechanisms related to solving the internally displaced persons' issues and their impact on social and economic processes in the regions. The internally displaced persons' influence analysis on the regional social and economic systems of Ukraine was conducted. The analysis allowed determining the rating of five regions with a significant load of IDPs and identifying the social and economic system in the region and the acutest elements. Practical implications. The peculiarities of internally displaced persons' migratory flows by regions and their impact analysis on the social and economic development of regions and Ukraine as a whole are to be investigated. Value/originality. The ways of positive social and economic dynamics of regional development enhancement due to the programs and regional development strategies correction, taking into account the resource potential of the IDPs in some areas, are proposed.
Urgency of the research. In the light of changes in the global security system, the problem of an adequate assessment of economic security in a regional context is acute. Existing methods provide for the calculation of a complex indicator or system of indicators for assessing economic security. Instead, the realities of today require a revision of the conceptual approach to the definition of "economic security", which will take into account the impact of the processes of interpenetration and the integration of economic systems of individual regions. Target setting. The problem of finding and testing new methods to assess the economic security of regions arises. Actual scientific researches and issues analysis. A considerable amount of research is devoted to the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the country's economic security. The classic approach to assessing economic security involves calculating the integral index and does not take into account the integration of individual regions and the country as a whole into world markets. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. The need to change the angle of view on the monitoring of regional economic security arose in connection with: an increase in the scale and acceleration of the processes of globalization; difficult geopolitical situation in the country. The research objective. The purpose of this study is to assess the feasibility of combining theoretical approach and indicative of the theory of open systems to assess the level of economic security of the region. The statement of basic materials. In this work an algorithm for using the apparatus of the theory of neural networks for the estimation of the economic system of the regions is developed. The obtained economic-mathematical model allows to perform clusterization of territorial units according to selected indicators of economic security. Testing of the developed algorithm is conducted on the basis of data on the state of economic development of the regions of Ukraine. Conclusions. The result of the simulation is a cluster structure that divided the totality of regions of Ukraine into four clusters according to selected classification characteristics. The results obtained have a clear economic interpretation.
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