We examine short selling in US stocks based on new SEC-mandated data for 2005. There is a tremendous amount of short selling in our sample: short sales represent 24% of NYSE and 31% of Nasdaq share volume. Short sellers increase their trading following positive returns and they correctly predict future negative abnormal returns. These patterns are robust to controlling for voluntary liquidity provision and for opportunistic risk-bearing by short sellers. The results are consistent with short sellers trading on short-term overreaction of stock prices. A trading strategy based on daily short-selling activity generates significant positive returns during the sample period. (JEL G12, G14) There is currently tremendous interest in short selling not only from academics, but also from issuers, media representatives, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and Congress. Academics generally share the view that short sellers help markets correct short-term deviations of stock prices from fundamental value. This view is by no means universally held, and many issuers and media representatives instead characterize short sellers as immoral, unethical, and downright un-American. 1 In an attempt to evaluate the efficacy of
We examine the effects of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)-mandated temporary suspension of short-sale price tests for a set of Pilot securities. While shortselling activity increases both for NYSE-and Nasdaq-listed Pilot stocks, returns and volatility at the daily level are unaffected. NYSE-listed Pilot stocks experience more symmetric trading patterns and a slight increase in spreads and intraday volatility after the suspension while there is a smaller effect on market quality for Nasdaqlisted Pilot stocks. The results suggest that the effect of the price tests on market quality can largely be attributed to distortions in order f low created by the price tests themselves.
The U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy system has long been viewed as debtor friendly, with frequency of absolute priority deviations (APD) in favor of equity holders commonplace, as high as 75%, before 1990. In the 1991-2005 period, we find a secular decline in the frequency of APD to 22%, with the frequency as low as 9% for the period 2000-2005. We identify the increasing importance of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing and key employee retention plans (KERP) in bankruptcy as the key drivers of this secular decline. We also find management turnover in Chapter 11 has increased by 65% since 1990 and that APD are more likely when management has substantial share holdings in the firm. The time spent in bankruptcy has also declined from about 23 months before 1990 to 16 months after 2000. Collectively, these results are consistent with the thesis that Chapter 11 has increasingly become creditor friendly over the years. We discuss the implications of our results for models that assume that equity has a valuable dilatory option in the bankruptcy process.
We test whether short-sellers in Nasdaq-listed stocks are able to predict future returns based on new SEC-mandated data for the first six months of 2005. There is a tremendous amount of short-term trading strategies involving short-sales during the sample: Short-sales represent 27 percent of Nasdaq share volume while monthly short-interest is about 3.1 percent of shares outstanding (5.5 days to cover). Short-sellers are on average contrarian -they sell short following positive returns. Increasing short-sales predict future negative returns, and the predictive power comes primarily from small trades. A trading strategy based on daily short-selling activity generates significant returns, but incurs costs large enough to wipe out any profits. * All three authors are at the Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University. We are grateful for comments from Leslie Boni, Rudi Fahlenbrach, Frank Hatheway, David Musto, René Stulz, and seminar participants at the Ohio State University, the NBER Market Microstructure Group, and the University of Georgia. We thank Nasdaq Economic Research for data. All errors are our own.Many market observers accuse short-sellers of destabilizing markets by selling stocks (they do not even own) when prices are already trending downward, exacerbating the negative momentum. Issuers and journalists often characterize short-sellers' activities as immoral, unethical and downright un-American. 1 Academics and traders instead argue that short-sellers stabilize security prices by selling stocks when prices exceed fundamental values, thus helping correct market overreaction. Short-term over-reaction could be caused by impediments to short-selling, as high costs of executing short-sales may result in stock prices reflecting the opinions of optimistic investors only (Miller (1977)). 2 Some researchers have even argued that costly short-selling was one of the culprits behind the stock market bubble of the late 1990s (e.g., Ofek and Richardson (2003)).In this study, we use the SEC mandated tick-by-tick short-sale data for 2,815 Nasdaq-listed stocks for the period January 3, 2005 to June 30, 2005 to test whether short-sellers are contrarian or momentum traders and whether they are able to predict future returns. We test these hypotheses by studying the link between short-selling activity and future returns and how short-sellers react to past returns on a daily level.The literature on short-selling is growing rapidly. Most previous studies have used monthly stock-specific short interest data (e.g., Figlewski and Webb (1993), Figlewski (1981), Dechow, Hutton, Meulbroek, and Sloan (2001), Desai et al (2002), Asquith, Pathak, and Ritter (2005), and Singal and Xu (2005)). There are three important problems with using monthly short interest data.First, the monthly reporting frequency does not permit researchers to study short-term trading strategies. Second, monthly short interest data does not distinguish between the short interest of dealers (who are exempt from short-sale restrictions) from th...
We use unique data from the London Stock Exchange to test whether interdealer trade facilitates inventory risk sharing among dealers. We develop a methodology that focuses on periods of "extreme" inventories-inventory cycles. We further distinguish between inventory cycles that are unanticipated and those that are anticipated because of "worked" orders. The pattern of interdealer trade during inventory cycles matches theoretical predictions for the direction of trade and the inventories of trade counterparts. We also show that London dealers receive higher trading revenues for taking larger positions.IN DEALER MARKETS, TWO OR MORE broker-dealer firms compete for customer transactions by quoting bid and ask prices, and sizes. 1 Prominent examples of dealer markets include Nasdaq, London's Stock Exchange Automated Quotations System~SEAQ!, and spot foreign exchange markets. Several empirical studies suggest that interdealer trade accounts for a substantial fraction of all trade in these markets. For example, Reiss and Werner~1995! estimate that interdealer trading on the London Stock Exchange accounts for 25
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