Shale gas is currently being explored in Europe as an alternative energy source to conventional oil and gas. There is, however, increasing concern about the potential environmental impacts of shale gas extraction by hydraulic fracturing (fracking). In this study, we focussed on the potential impacts on regional water resources within the Baltic Basin in Poland, both in terms of quantity and quality. The future development of the shale play was modeled for the time period 2015–2030 using the LUISA modeling framework. We formulated two scenarios which took into account the large range in technology and resource requirements, as well as two additional scenarios based on the current legislation and the potential restrictions which could be put in place. According to these scenarios, between 0.03 and 0.86 % of the total water withdrawals for all sectors could be attributed to shale gas exploitation within the study area. A screening-level assessment of the potential impact of the chemicals commonly used in fracking was carried out and showed that due to their wide range of physicochemical properties, these chemicals may pose additional pressure on freshwater ecosystems. The legislation put in place also influenced the resulting environmental impacts of shale gas extraction. Especially important are the protection of vulnerable ground and surface water resources and the promotion of more water-efficient technologies.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00267-015-0454-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Appropriate land management can be an effective approach to improving water quantity regulation. There is, however, a need to identify both where measures are most needed and where they may be most effective. The water retention index (WRI) was developed with this goal in mind.The WRI is a composite indicator which takes into account parameters reflecting potential water retention in vegetation, water bodies, soil and underlying aquifers, as well as the influence of slope and artificially sealed areas. Three land management scenarios were simulated up to 2030 using the LUISA modeling platform: increasing grassland in upstream areas as well as afforestation in both upstream areas and riparian zones. The WRI was computed for all scenarios as well as a comparative "business-as-usual" baseline scenario. All scenarios showed an overall improvement of the index as compared to this baseline, with afforestation in upstream areas having the greatest effect. The WRI can provide useful insights into the current capacity of a landscape to regulate water as well as the effectiveness of possible remediation strategies applied at the European scale. The management of both the quality and the quantity of Europe's water resources remains a major concern, especially given the current and potential future rate of urbanization. This increased population pressure and higher degree of soil sealing can lead to a reduction in both condition and quantity of natural areas. This paper looks more specifically at the potential impacts on water quantity management over time.An indicator is presented which reflects the landscape's capacity to regulate water (i.e., intercept, retain and store the water flowing through it), and which can be used to assess the potential impacts of land use changes over time. De Groot, Wilson, and Boumans (2002) state that water regulation is the role of land cover in regulating runoff and river discharge. Several approaches have been taken to quantify water regulation, including using infiltration rate (Le Clec'h et al., 2016) and/or soil water storage capacity (Laterra, Orúe, & Booman, 2012; Smith, De Groot, & Bergkamp, 2006;TEEB, 2010) ologies, however, are data-intensive and/or require specific models to be used. Some studies have already looked at more comprehensive, less data-intensive ways of estimating water retention or regulation capacity, both for smaller study areas (Šatalová & Kenderessy, 2017) and at --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. Of land used for industrial purposes, 7-12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact. a b s t r a c t Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015-2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact.

Covering 35% of Europe’s land area, forest ecosystems play a crucial role in safeguarding biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Yet, forest degradation continues to undermine key ecosystem services that forests deliver to society. Here we provide a spatially explicit assessment of the condition of forest ecosystems in Europe following a United Nations global statistical standard on ecosystem accounting, adopted in March 2021. We measure forest condition on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 represents a degraded ecosystem and 1 represents a reference condition based on primary or protected forests. We show that the condition across 44 forest types averaged 0.566 in 2000 and increased to 0.585 in 2018. Forest productivity and connectivity are comparable to levels observed in undisturbed or least disturbed forests. One third of the forest area was subject to declining condition, signalled by a reduction in soil organic carbon, tree cover density and species richness of threatened birds. Our findings suggest that forest ecosystems will need further restoration, improvements in management and an extended period of recovery to approach natural conditions.