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Background A subset of patients with severe COVID-19 develop a hyperinflammatory syndrome, which might contribute to morbidity and mortality. This study explores a specific phenotype of COVID-19-associated hyperinflammation (COV-HI), and its associations with escalation of respiratory support and survival. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled consecutive inpatients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to University College London Hospitals and Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals in the UK with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 during the first wave of community-acquired infection. Demographic data, laboratory tests, and clinical status were recorded from the day of admission until death or discharge, with a minimum follow-up time of 28 days. We defined COV-HI as a C-reactive protein concentration greater than 150 mg/L or doubling within 24 h from greater than 50 mg/L, or a ferritin concentration greater than 1500 μg/L. Respiratory support was categorised as oxygen only, non-invasive ventilation, and intubation. Initial and repeated measures of hyperinflammation were evaluated in relation to the next-day risk of death or need for escalation of respiratory support (as a combined endpoint), using a multi-level logistic regression model. Findings We included 269 patients admitted to one of the study hospitals between March 1 and March 31, 2020, among whom 178 (66%) were eligible for escalation of respiratory support and 91 (34%) patients were not eligible. Of the whole cohort, 90 (33%) patients met the COV-HI criteria at admission. Despite having a younger median age and lower median Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, a higher proportion of patients with COV-HI on admission died during follow-up (36 [40%] of 90 patients) compared with the patients without COV-HI on admission (46 [26%] of 179). Among the 178 patients who were eligible for full respiratory support, 65 (37%) met the definition for COV-HI at admission, and 67 (74%) of the 90 patients whose respiratory care was escalated met the criteria by the day of escalation. Meeting the COV-HI criteria was significantly associated with the risk of next-day escalation of respiratory support or death (hazard ratio 2·24 [95% CI 1·62–2·87]) after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. Interpretation Associations between elevated inflammatory markers, escalation of respiratory support, and survival in people with COVID-19 indicate the existence of a high-risk inflammatory phenotype. COV-HI might be useful to stratify patient groups in trial design. Funding None.

What is known?The NEWS2 scoring system is widely used throughout the UK NHS to monitor physiological parameters in order to enable the early detection of clinical deterioration. However, its performance in COVID-19 has not been validated and concerns have been raised about its sensitivity. What is the question?We aimed to ascertain whether longitudinal NEWS2 monitoring can pre-emptively identify clinical deterioration in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. What was found?NEWS2 ≥5 had an excellent sensitivity to detect deteriorating COVID-19 patients, albeit at the expense of a relatively high false-trigger rate. Longitudinal trends in NEWS2 scores increased many hours before serious clinical events, and baseline NEWS2 was also modestly predictive of future clinical deterioration. What is the implication for practice now?NEWS2 monitoring is an appropriately sensitive method for identifying the potential for clinical deterioration of hospitalised COVID-19 patients and should continue to be used alongside clinical judgement.

The homeostatic maintenance of normal numbers of mature T lymphocytes in the immune system depends on signaling from the T cell antigen receptor (TCR) and the interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R); however, it is unclear whether there is crosstalk between these two receptors. Here, we have identified a central role for TCR signaling during the development of T lymphocytes in the thymus in the determination of IL-7 function in mature T lymphocytes. We showed that Il7r expression in mature T cells was modulated by developmental TCR-dependent signals elicited during the process of positive selection in the thymus and that this mechanism was common to both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. Control of Il7r expression by the TCR was limited to thymocytes because neither the abundance nor the function of IL-7Rα was affected by TCR signaling in peripheral T cells. Finally, we showed that thymocytes without optimal IL-7Rα abundance failed to form part of the pool of mature T lymphocytes that patrol the periphery of normal hosts, highlighting the importance of this mechanism in shaping the repertoire of lymphocytes that make up this population.

Recent large national and international cohorts describe the baseline characteristics and outcome of hospitalised patients with COVID-19, however there is limited granularity to these reports. We aimed to provide a detailed description of a UK COVID-19 cohort, focusing on management and outcome. We performed a retrospective single-centre analysis of clinical management and 28-day outcomes of consecutive adult inpatients with SARS-CoV-2 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 from 31 January to 16 April 2020 inclusive. In total, 316 cases were identified. Most patients were elderly (median age 75) with multiple comorbidities. One quarter were admitted from residential or nursing care. Mortality was 84 out of 316 (26.6%). Most deaths occurred in patients in whom a ceiling of inpatient treatment had been determined and for whom end of life care and specialist palliative care input was provided where appropriate. No deaths occurred in patients aged under 56 years. Decisions to initiate respiratory support were individualised after consideration of patient wishes, premorbid frailty and comorbidities. In total, 59 (18%) patients were admitted to intensive care, of which 31 (10% overall cohort) required intubation. Multiple logistic regression identified associations between death and age, frailty, and disease severity, with age as the most significant factor (odds ratio 1.07 [95% CI 1.03–1.10] per year increase, p < 0.001). These findings provide important clinical context to outcome data. Mortality was associated with increasing age. Most deaths were anticipated and occurred in patients with advance decisions on ceilings of treatment.

Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure (p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores.

Background: Recent large national and international cohorts describe the baseline characteristics and outcome of hospitalised patients with COVID-19, however there is little granularity to these reports. We aimed to provide a detailed description of a UK COVID-19 cohort, focusing on clinical decisions and patient journeys. Methods: We retrospectively analysed the management and 28-day outcomes of 316 consecutive adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a large NHS Foundation Trust with a tertiary High Consequence Infectious Diseases centre in the North of England. Findings: Most patients were elderly (median age 75) with multiple comorbidities. One quarter were admitted from residential or nursing care. Symptoms were consistent with COVID-19, with cough, fever and/or breathlessness in 90.5% of patients. Two thirds of patients had severe disease on admission. Mortality was 81/291 (27.8%). Most deaths were anticipated; decisions to initiate respiratory support were individualised after consideration of patient wishes, premorbid frailty and comorbidities, with specialist palliative care input where appropriate. 22/291 (7.6%) patients were intubated and 11/22 (50%) survived beyond discharge. Multiple logistic regression identified age as the most significant risk factor for death (OR 1.09 [95% CI 1.06 - 1.12] per year increase, p < 0.001). Interpretation: These findings provide important clinical context to outcome data. Deaths were anticipated, occurring in patients with advance decisions on ceilings of treatment. Age was the most significant risk factor for death, confirming that demographic factors in the population are a major influence on hospital mortality rates. Funding: Funding was not required.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are known to be at increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2, although whether these risks are equal across all roles is uncertain. Here we report a retrospective analysis of a large real-world dataset obtained from 10 March to 6 July 2020 in an NHS Foundation Trust in England with 17,126 employees. 3,338 HCWs underwent symptomatic PCR testing (14.4% positive, 2.8% of all staff) and 11,103 HCWs underwent serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 IgG (8.4% positive, 5.5% of all staff). Seropositivity was lower than other hospital settings in England but higher than community estimates. Increased test positivity rates were observed in HCWs from BAME backgrounds and residents in areas of higher social deprivation. A multiple logistic regression model adjusting for ethnicity and social deprivation confirmed statistically significant increases in the odds of testing positive in certain occupational groups, most notably domestic services staff, nurses, and health-care assistants. PCR testing of symptomatic HCWs appeared to underestimate overall infection levels, probably due to asymptomatic seroconversion. Clinical outcomes were reassuring, with only a small minority of HCWs with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization (2.3%) or ICU management (0.7%) and with no deaths. Despite a relatively low level of HCW infection compared to other UK cohorts, there were nevertheless important differences in test positivity rates between occupational groups, robust to adjustment for demographic factors such as ethnic background and social deprivation. Quantitative and qualitative studies are needed to better understand the factors contributing to this risk. Robust informatics solutions for HCW exposure data are essential to inform occupational monitoring.