In high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll regions, phytoplankton growth is limited by the availability of water-soluble iron. The eruption of Kasatochi volcano in August 2008 led to ash deposition into the iron-limited NE Pacific Ocean. Volcanic ash released iron upon contact with seawater and generated a massive phytoplankton bloom. Here we investigate this event with a one-dimensional ocean biogeochemical column model to illuminate the ocean response to iron fertilisation by volcanic ash. The results indicate that the added iron triggered a phytoplankton bloom in the summer of 2008. Associated with this bloom, macronutrient concentrations such as nitrate and silicate decline and zooplankton biomass is enhanced in the ocean mixed layer. The simulated development of the drawdown of carbon dioxide and increase of pH in surface seawater is in good agreement with available observations. Sensitivity studies with different supply dates of iron to the ocean emphasise the favourable oceanic conditions in the NE Pacific to generate massive phytoplankton blooms in particular during July and August in comparison to other months. By varying the amount of volcanic ash and associated bio-available iron supplied to the ocean, model results demonstrate that the NE Pacific Ocean has higher, but limited capabilities to consume CO2 after iron fertilisation than those observed after the volcanic eruption of Kasatochi
Satellite data of both physical properties as well as ocean colour can be assimilated into coupled ocean-biogeochemical models with the aim to improve the model state. The physical observations like sea surface temperature usually have smaller errors than ocean colour, but it is unclear how far they can also constrain the biogeochemical model variables. Here, the effect of assimilating satellite sea surface temperature into the coastal ocean-biogeochemical model HBM-ERGOM with nested model grids in the North and Baltic Seas is investigated. Weakly and strongly-coupled assimilation is performed with an ensemble Kalman filter. For weaklycoupled assimilation, the assimilation only directly influences the physical variables, while the biogeochemical variables react only dynamically during the 12-hour forecast phases in between the assimilation times. For strongly-coupled assimilation, both the physical and biogeochemical variables are directly updated by the assimilation. The strongly-coupled assimilation is assessed in two variants using the actual concentrations and the common approach to use the logarithm of the concentrations of the biogeochemical fields. In this coastal domain, both the weakly and strongly-coupled assimilation are stable, but only if the actual concentrations are used for the strongly-coupled case. Compared to the weakly-coupled assimilation, the strongly-coupled assimilation leads to stronger changes of the biogeochemical model fields. Validating the resulting field estimates with independent in situ data shows only a clear improvement for the temperature and for oxygen concentrations, while no clear improvement of other biogeochemical fields was found. The oxygen concentrations were more strongly improved with strongly-coupled than weakly-coupled assimilation. The experiments further indicate that for the strongly-coupled assimilation of physical observations the biogeochemical fields should be used with their actual concentrations rather than the logarithmic concentrations.
This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions.
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