This study aims to understand the dynamics of aggregate and sectorial employment elasticity of output growth in the Kazakhstan economy from 1996 to 2019. To serve our purpose, a rolling regression method with a window of 6 years has been used to estimate aggregate and sectoral employment elasticity, and an ARDL bounds testing approach has been incorporated to assess the impact of various macroeconomics determinants. The results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship, and the employment elasticity of output growth in Kazakhstan's economy has declined at aggregate and sectoral levels, thus indicating jobless growth. More specifically, the results reveal that inflation, trade openness and the exchange rate are negatively associated with employment elasticity. In contrast, a positive association is established between service sector employment share, the population growth rate and employment elasticity of output growth. The study recommends strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and exchange rate stabilization coupled with robust development of human capital.
Using the time series from World Bank (1995–2019), the present article explores the relationship between tourism inflow and poverty alleviation (per capita household consumption) within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. The article employs three alternative approaches of PARDL, namely pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators. In addition, two substitute single-equation models, namely dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), are employed to estimate the long-run relationship between poverty alleviation, tourism inflow and other control variables. The results suggest that tourism inflow met the a priori expectation—positively influencing poverty alleviation within SAARC countries in the long run. Furthermore, poverty is reduced by increasing per capita income and output in the industry sector. Poverty can worsen due to an increase in the total trade of member countries. In addition, the findings indicate the insignificant impact of the agricultural sector on poverty alleviation and the unanimous effect of the service sector on poverty. Based on these findings present article frames various policy implications.
This study examines the determinants of international tourism demand in India using time series data from 1991-2019 from the top 15 source tourist countries. To do this, the study employed an augmented gravity model estimated using a two-step panel fixed-effect model to identify the factors affecting tourism demand in India. These factors include the income of both India and its origin countries. The domestic exchange rate of both India and the source country is included to capture the impact of the cost of living and prices of goods and services. Supporting variables like distance, common border, and common language between India and source of origin country were also identified. Further, it includes the impact of similarity and common membership to SAARC. Empirical results indicate that the level of Indian income, language, and similarity have a positive impact on tourism inflow to India. On the other hand distance and the domestic exchange rate of India have negative impacts. Further, the income level of origin countries has a significant positive impact. Also, common membership to SAARC and the common border between India and the origin country have a significant positive impact on tourism demand in India. Furthermore, international demand for Indian tourism is not affected by the relative price in the origin country.
In this study, the issue of economic growth and Convergence in the 12 countries of the CIS region has been investigated thoroughly for 27 years, from 1991–2017. The paper examines the absolute, sigma and conditional Convergence of the CIS region. Conditional Convergence is examined through the augmented Solow and extended Solow models. During the study period, the empirical results confirm no significant negative correlation between the initial ratio of the countries per capita GDP and the average yearly growth rate. Thus, indicating the absence of absolute β convergence across the CIS economies during 1991–2017. The results of the sigma convergence are consistent with the results derived from the absolute convergence model. Referring to the augmented Solow model estimations, we found the rate of conditional β-convergence (coefficient of initial GDP per capita) of value 0.028 among members of the CIS region after controlling GDP per capita, physical and human capital and population growth have important contributions to make in the growth and Convergence of countries. In Solow extended growth regression, the initial GDP per capita coefficient is 0.33. Therefore, besides the initial level of per capita income, physical and human capital and population growth, other factors have important contributions to make to the growth and Convergence of countries of CIS.
The paper examines the long-run relationship between poverty reduction, economic growth, and tourism development in Kazakhstan during the period of 2001–2017. We expand the basic model by including other poverty determinants such as inequality, unemployment, and spending on health. We use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to test the co-integration of variables, as the ARDL bound test of co-integration is less restrictive and provides more reliable coefficients than other time series econometric models. The ARDL bound test results show that there exists a long-run relationship between the said variables. The coefficients of all variables have the expected signs in the long run.
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