Abstract-An inspection of the time-plot of monthly Prime Motor Spirit (PMS) distribution in Nigeria from 2009 to 2015 reveals an abrupt jump in January 2013 with the series continuing at that level till 2015. Clearly the trend of the series was interrupted in January 2013 and it is believed that this perturbation was due to the deregulation of the downstream sector of the crude oil industry. A t-test comparison of the pre-and the post-intervention means is highly significant (p < 0.0001) indicating the impact of the intervention. A model of the ARIMA family was to be fitted to the pre-intervention data which were observed to have a downward trend and be non-stationary. Differencing once rendered it stationary. An adequate ARIMA(2,1,0) model was fitted to the original pre-intervention series. Postintervention forecasts were obtained on the basis of this model. These forecasts were subtracted from their respective post-intervention counterpart observations. These differences were modelled to obtain the transfer function of the intervention. The resultant intervention model closely fits the post-intervention data and may be used to explain and control the situation.
The Nigerian disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programme known as the Amnesty Programme have become common practice in countries facing violent conflict. A time-series model for monthly crude oil production was developed to examine the effect of Government’s Amnesty Programme (GAP) introduced in August 2009. The data used in this study are the monthly crude oil production spanning from January 1999 to December 2020. From results of model estimation, we found that the intervention due to the Amnesty programme had no impact on crude oil production since the null hypothesis that is 0 was retained. Factors suggested to account for this development includes: Crack in deal, as Nigerian Government found it difficult to fund the programme due to incessant fall in oil price and emergence of new groups of militant. The renewed instability and violent attacks on oil facilities have resulted in a serious reduction of crude oil production. Thus, government should consider tackling wider socio-economic grievances in the country’s oil production region in other to bring stability, which will lead to increase in oil production.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.