We analyze 1980–2010 ground displacements, to discern similarities or differences between Campi Flegrei (CF) inflations and deflations and highlight possible anomalies in particular areas. We show that the deformation pattern can be decomposed into two stationary (constant over time, except for a mere scaling factor) parts; both of them are satisfied by simple deformation sources. A quasi-horizontal elongated crack (oriented NW to SE, and embedded in an elastic layered half-space at a depth of about 3600 m) satisfies large-scale deformation. All source parameters but potency (volume change) are constant over time. Residual deformation is confined to the area of the Solfatara fumarolic field and satisfied by a small spheroid located at about 1900 m in depth. Again, all source parameters but potency are constant over time. The histories of the two sources are somewhat similar but not equal, supporting the existence of a genuine local deformation source at Solfatara against the emergence of a mere distortion of large-scale deformation. Although reality is probably much more complex, our simple model explains 1980–2010 CF deformation within ground-displacement data errors and is consistent with Solfatara geochemical conceptual models, fumarolic geochemical data, and seismic attenuation imaging of CF. The observation that the CF deformation pattern can be decomposed into two stationary parts is hardly compatible with several recent works which proposed multiple sources with different features acting in different periods, fluid injections implying ample changes of large-scale deformation pattern over time, complex spatio-temporal patterns of distributions of volumetric sources

From 2006 to spring 2013, Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera, Italy, was mostly uplifting at an increasing rate, particularly high from 2011. We show that the 2011-2013 accelerated uplift and 1980-2010 inflation and deflation phases can be explained by a two-source conceptual model similar to that proposed by Amoruso et al. (2014) (reference model). However, pressurization of the sole thin quasi-horizontal similar to 4000 m deep source, responsible for large-scale 1980-2010 deformation, can explain the whole 2011-2013 deformation, while activity of the shallower Solfatara hydrothermal source, responsible for residual 1980-2010 deformation, appears constant. These results suggest a predominantly magmatic unrest in 2011-2013. Near-real-time comparison of observations and reference model predictions can provide additional information for short-term eruption forecasting at CF; a similar approach could be followed also in other volcanic environments

No abstract