Chrysotile, a serpentine asbestos fibre, is the only type of asbestos produced and consumed in the world today. It is an established human carcinogen. We have begun fieldwork on a retrospective cohort study of employees of one of the world's largest chrysotile mine and mills, situated in Asbest, Russia. The primary aim of the study is to better characterize and quantify the risk of cancer mortality in terms of (i) the dose-response relationship of exposure with risk; (ii) the range of cancer sites affected, including female-specific cancers; and (iii) effects of duration of exposure and latency periods. This information will expand our understanding of the scale of the impending cancer burden due to chrysotile, including if chrysotile use ceased worldwide forthwith. Herein we describe the scientific rationale for conducting this study and the main features of its study design.
Our study shows that dust to fibre conversion is possible by unit but extrapolations are needed. The patterns for exposure by dust and fibre will be similar but estimated fibre levels will show less contrast due to the conversion factor being smaller at higher dust concentrations.
ObjectivesMining and processing of chrysotile, an established carcinogen, has been undertaken in Asbest, Russian Federation since the late 1800s. Dust concentrations were routinely recorded at the open-pit mine and its asbestos-enrichment factories. We examined the temporal trends in these dust concentrations from 1951 to 2001.MethodsAnalyses included 89290 monthly averaged gravimetric dust concentrations in six factories (1951–2001) and 1457 monthly averaged concentrations in the mine (1964–2001). Annual percent changes (APC) in geometric mean dust concentrations were estimated for each factory and the mine separately from linear mixed models of the logarithmic-transformed monthly averaged concentrations.ResultsDust concentrations declined significantly in the mine [APC: −1.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI): −3.0 to −0.2] and Factories 1–5 but not 6. Overall factory APCs ranged from −30.4% (95% CI: −51.9 to −8.9; Factory 1: 1951–1955) to −0.6% (95% CI: −1.5 to 0.2; Factory 6: 1969–2001). Factory trends varied across decades, with the steepest declines observed before 1960 [APCs: −21.5% (Factory 2) and −17.4% (Factory 3)], more moderate declines in the 1960s and 1970s [APCs from −10% in Factory 2 (1960s) to −0.3% (not statistically significant) in Factory 4 (1970s)], and little change thereafter. Mine dust concentrations increased in the 1960s (APC: +9.7%; 95% CI: 3.6 to 15.9), decreased in the 1990s (APC: −5.8%; 95% CI: −8.1 to −3.5) and were stable in between.ConclusionsIn this analysis of >90000 dust concentrations, factory dust concentrations declined between 1951 and 1979 and then stabilized. In the mine, dust levels increased in the 1960s, declined in the 1990s and were unchanged in the interim.
BackgroundThe Sverdlovsk region of the Russian Federation is characterised by its abundance of natural resources and industries. Located in this region, Asbest city is situated next to one of the largest open-pit chrysotile asbestos mines currently operational; many city residents are employed in activities related to mining and processing of chrysotile. We compared mortality rates from 1997 to 2010 in Asbest city to the remaining Sverdlovsk region, with additional analyses conducted for site-specific cancer mortality.MethodsPopulation and mortality data for Asbest city and Sverdlovsk region were used to estimate crude and age-specific rates by gender for the entire period and for each calendar year. Age-standardized mortality rates were also calculated for the adult population (20+) and Poisson regression was used to estimate standardized mortality ratios, overall and by gender.ResultsDuring the period of 1997 to 2010, there were similar mortality rates overall in Asbest and the Sverdlovsk region. However, there were higher rates of cancer mortality (18 % males; 21 % females) and digestive diseases (21 % males; 40 % females) in Asbest and lower rates of unknown/ill-defined in Asbest (60 % males; 47 % females). Circulatory disease mortality was slightly lower in Asbest. Cancer mortality was higher for men in Asbest from oesophageal, urinary tract and lung cancers compared to the Sverdlovsk region. In women, cancer mortality was higher for women in Asbest from stomach, colon, lung and breast cancers compared to the Sverdlovsk region.ConclusionsThis large population-based analysis indicates interesting differences but studies with individual exposure information are needed to understand the underlying factors.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-016-0125-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Space travelers are exposed to unique forms of ionizing radiation that pose potentially serious health hazards. Prior analyses have attempted to quantify excess mortality risk for astronauts exposed to space radiation, but low statistical power has frustrated inferences. If exposure to deep space radiation were causally linked to deaths due to two particular causes, e.g., cancer and cardiovascular disease, then those cause-specific deaths would not be statistically independent. In this case, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve for a specific cause that treats deaths due to competing causes as uninformative censored events would result in biased estimates of survival probabilities. Here we look for evidence of a deleterious effect of historical exposure to space radiation by assessing whether or not there is evidence for such bias in Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Evidence of such bias may implicate space radiation as a common causal link to these two disease processes. An absence of such evidence would be evidence that no such common causal link to radiation exposure during space travel exists. We found that survival estimates from the Kaplan-Meier curves were largely congruent with those of competing risk methods, suggesting that if ionizing radiation is impacting the risk of death due to cancer and cardiovascular disease, the effect is not dramatic.
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