Malawi is an earthquake-prone country that lies within the East African Rift. A large proportion of its population lives in non-engineered single-storey constructions made of clay bricks and low-strength mortar. Walls are typically single-skin and often lack adequate wall-to-wall connections, leaving them vulnerable to seismic actions. This work reports a comprehensive study on the seismic fragility of unreinforced masonry buildings of the Malawi housing stock. The probability of exceeding different levels of in-plane/out-of-plane damage is estimated by considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the problem. Inter-building and intra-building variability are accounted for by adopting material test results and building survey data collected in Malawi. The inplane capacity of building walls is calculated through a finite element model that considers the orthotropic properties of masonry. The out-of-plane capacity is computed using an analytical solution, developed for walls in one way bending. In addition, record-to-record variability is considered. The new country-specific fragility models result more conservative that global estimates, which reflects the high vulnerability of Malawian masonry buildings. These fragilities can be integrated into catastrophe modelling platforms for earthquake risk assessment in Malawi and in the wider East African region.

This study presents a building classification scheme for residential houses in Malawi by focusing upon informal construction, which accounts for more than 90% of housing in the country with the highest urbanisation rate in the world. The proposed classification is compatible with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) method and can be used for seismic vulnerability assessments of building stock in Malawi. To obtain realistic proportions of the building classes that are prevalent in Malawi, a building survey was conducted in Central and Southern Malawi between 10th and 20th July 2017. The results from the survey are used to modify the PAGER-based proportions of main housing typologies by reflecting actual housing construction in the surveyed areas. The results clearly highlight the importance of using realistic building stock data for seismic risk assessment in Malawi; relying on global building stock information can result in significant bias of earthquake impact assessment.

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Malawi is located within the southern branch of the active East African Rift System, where earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater can occur along major faults. The majority of dwellings in the country are non-engineered unreinforced masonry constructions, built by local artisans with little input from engineers. These constructions are highly vulnerable to seismic events due to poor-quality materials and lack of construction detailing. This study presents a new methodology to assess the seismic fragility curves of typical dwellings located in the Central and Southern Malawi. On-site inspections of buildings are carried out to assess geometrical and structural features of 646 façades, and an experimental campaign is performed to characterise the mechanical properties of local construction materials. The collected data allow the identification of different building typologies in terms of quality of materials and construction techniques. The critical failure modes for each of the inspected façade at their ultimate limit state are evaluated analytically. Damage limit states are defined and adopted to derive simplified Static Push-Over (SPO) curves, transformed into incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) curves by using SPO2IDA. The IDA curves are then used to obtain fragility curves for the specific damage limit states. The fragility curves presented herein are the first to be calculated for these building typologies, based on local data, and unfortunately, they show that buildings in Malawi are far more vulnerable to earthquakes than estimated from previously available international reference data. The fragility curves developed in this study may prove useful for assessing the seismic risk of these building typologies in Malawi and other East African countries.

Strength properties of masonry materials commonly used for housing construction in formal and informal settlements in Malawi are investigated by means of laboratory testing, conducted on masonry prisms and panels. The tests are aimed at simulating actual field conditions and construction practices in the country. Based on observations from previous field surveys, specimens were prepared by local artisans using local commercially-produced bricks and various mortar types which were cured in uncontrolled conditions. The results reveal that the behaviour of the masonry in compression is governed by the low compressive strength of the bricks. It was also found that it is the quality of the brick-mortar bonding that governs the in-plane shear and out-ofplane flexural behaviour, which are critical for the resistance to horizontal loading, such as the earthquake action.