Our results provide a spatially explicit baseline from which to focus efforts on the prevention, management and control of this pest worldwide. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

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BACKGROUND: Solanum sisymbriifolium is a native plant of South America introduced into Africa, which has detrimental effects on crop yields, and on the environment due to weed control treatment by burning. In South America, S. sisymbriifolium is naturally controlled by the beetle Gratiana spadicea, making this a potential option for its control in Africa. Here, we aim to generate current and future scenarios for the introduction of G. spadicea as a biocontrol agent in Africa, analysing: (i) current and future effective biocontrol areas; (ii) potentially avoided economic losses (AEL), and chemical control costs and savings; and (iii) avoided carbon emissions (ACE) associated with the non-burning of crop fields. We combine species distribution models (SDM) with land cover maps to estimate current and future effective biocontrol considering Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We then estimate AEL and ACE using biocontrol, and chemical control costs and savings. RESULTS: The effective biocontrol area reached 392 405 km 2 in 18 countries, representing 40% of potentially affected croplands. Climate change induced a decrease in affected croplands and effective biocontrol. The estimated AEL reached US $45 447.2 ± 5617.3 billion distributed across 16 countries, while the estimated chemical control costs and savings reached US$1988.5 billion and 1411.8 billion, respectively. Potential ACE reached 36.3 ± 5.4 Tg.CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence for the potential benefits of biological controllers on economic losses and carbon emissions, which can be incorporated into sustainable development in low-income countries.

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Although protected areas (PAs) are considered fundamental to the conservation of nature, exotic species (ES) impose challenges on their role as biodiversity reservoirs, especially under climate change scenarios. In this regard, PAs of temperate & non-tropical countries of the Southern Hemisphere, like Chile, may be particularly vulnerable to ES due to the high endemism plus the expense due to control programs of exotic species and of the environmental conditions suitable for them. Here, we evaluated how vulnerable PAs are to the exposure of some of the “100 of The World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species”, which include animals and plants introduced in Chile, by combining climate change scenarios and ecological niche modeling. We projected the niche requirement of these exotic species on two alternative emission scenarios with varying levels of mitigation by 2050. We found that the central-southern and southern macro-regions are the most susceptible to be invaded in mainland Chile, with the occurrence of at least 80% of evaluated species. National Reserves (homologated with category IV IUCN) of the central and southern regions were the PAs most exposed sites to the spread of the evaluated species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide helpful evidence of the vulnerability of Chilean PAs and important insights into the need for urgent management intended to avoid future climate change-induced establishment of exotic species.

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IntroductionBiotic interactions are a crucial component of the plant regeneration process, which has been traditionally studied at more local scales, providing the tools for planning and decision-making. Studies showing the signature of species interactions at coarser spatial scales contrasting with animal-plant interactions at fine scales have been scarce. This study aimed at integrating an approach, over both biogeographic and local scales, by testing two endemic species of Mediterranean central Chile: the relict and southernmost threatened Chilean palm Jubaea chilensis (Chilean palm; Molina; Baillón) and the caviomorph scatter-hoarding rodent Octodon degus (Degu; Molina), on which this palm currently relies for seed dispersal.MethodsIntegrating Geographic Information Systems and Ecological Niche Modeling, the intensity of seed-rodent interactions from a territorial perspective was evaluated in the range of the palm, at a biogeographic scale, identifying areas with greater or lesser potential for seed-rodent interactions; and in local populations, incorporating a variety of environmental factors that might affect palm regeneration.ResultsThe present results show that the rodent (Octodon degus) may play a role in Chilean palm (Jubaea chilensis) seed dispersal and seed establishment, since; Chilean palm regeneration is higher in areas where both species co-occur. At a local scale, a prominent overlap between palm seedlings and degu burrows was also found, which, allied with other abiotic variables such as altitude and topographic humidity, are crucial for successful palm regeneration.DiscussionUnderstanding the full extent of animal-plant interactions and how they are affected by habitat perturbation in a wide range will provide essential information for the design of effective conservation and management strategies, such as rewilding based on plant species.