The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.climate | aerosol−cloud effects | general circulation models | radiative forcing | satellite observations Clouds play a key role in Earth's radiation budget, and aerosols serve as the seeds upon which cloud droplets form. Anthropogenic activity has led to an increase in aerosol particle concentrations globally and an increase in those particles that act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INP). The effect of an increase in aerosols on cloud optical properties, and associated radiative forcing, is the most uncertain component of historical radiative forcing of Earth's climate caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 assessment of climate forcing factors (Fig. S1) ascribes "high" confidence to the estimate of direct aerosol radiative forcing (mean

A 3-yr (1998)(1999)(2000) climatology of near-surface rainfall and stratiform rain fraction observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) was used to calculate the four-dimensional distribution of tropical latent heating on seasonal-to-annual time scales. The TRMM-derived latent heating was then used to force an idealized primitive equation model using an initial value approach in order to obtain the quasi-steady-state, nonlinear, zonally asymmetric atmospheric response to precipitating tropical cloud systems.In agreement with previous studies, an increase in stratiform rain fraction elevates circulation centers and strengthens the upper-level response. Furthermore, horizontal variations in the vertical heating profile implied by the PR stratiform rain fraction pattern lead to circulation anomalies of varying height and vertical extent that are not present when the model is forced with a vertically uniform heating field. During El Niño, the trans-Pacific gradient in stratiform rain fraction that is normally present becomes more pronounced and the model response becomes even more sensitive to the horizontal variability of the latent heating vertical structure. When the heating field is modified to take into account the effects of nonprecipitating cumulus and cloud radiative forcing within the regions of tropical precipitating cloud systems, the overall pattern of the model response to the TRMM-derived latent heating is reinforced, as is the model's sensitivity to the variability in the latent heating vertical structure.

The seasonal cycle of the zonal-mean zonal momentum balance in the Tropics is investigated using NCEP reanalysis data. It is found that the climatological stationary waves in the tropical upper troposphere, which are dominated by the equatorial Rossby wave response to tropical heating, produce an equatorward eddy flux of westerly momentum in the equatorial belt. The resulting westerly acceleration in the tropical upper troposphere is balanced by the advection of easterly momentum associated with the cross-equatorial mean meridional circulation. The eddy momentum fluxes and the cross-equatorial flow both tend to be strongest during the monsoon seasons, when the maximum diabatic heating is off the equator, and weakest during April–May, the season of strongest equatorial symmetry of the heating. The upper-level Rossby wave pattern exhibits a surprising degree of equatorial symmetry and follows a similar seasonal progression. Solutions of the nonlinear shallow water wave equation also show a predominantly equatorially symmetric response to a heat source centered off the equator.

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The response of the zonal-mean zonal winds in the tropical upper troposphere to thermal forcing in the Tropics is studied using an idealized general circulation model with 18 vertical levels and simplified atmospheric physics. The model produces a conventional general circulation, with deep easterly flow over the equator, when integrated using zonally invariant and hemispherically symmetric boundary conditions, but persistent equatorial superrotation (westerly zonal-mean flow over the equator) is obtained when steady longitudinal variations in diabatic heating are imposed at low latitudes. The superrotation is driven by horizontal eddy momentum fluxes associated with the stationary planetary wave response to the applied tropical heating. The strength of the equatorial westerlies is ultimately limited by vertical steady eddy momentum fluxes, which are downward in the tropical upper troposphere, and by the zonally averaged circulation in the meridional plane, which erodes the mean westerly shear via vertical advection.The transition to superrotation can be prevented by specifying offsetting zonally invariant heating and cooling anomalies on either side of the equator to create a "solstitial" basic state with a single dominant Hadley cell straddling the equator. Superrotation is restricted in the solstitial climate because the strength of the mean meridional overturning is enhanced, which increases the efficiency of vertical advection, and because the cross-equatorial flow in the upper troposphere provides an easterly zonal acceleration that offsets some of the momentum flux convergence associated with tropical eddy heating. The cross-equatorial flow aloft also reduces the stationary planetary wave response in the summer hemisphere. These results suggest that hemispheric asymmetry in the mean meridional circulation is responsible for maintaining the observed mean easterly flow in the tropical upper troposphere against the westerly torques associated with tropical wave sources.