A self-adjusting zero-order Brown’s model has been devised. This model makes it possible to predict with high accuracy not only fires in the premises but also irreversible processes and phenomena of a random and chaotic nature under actual conditions. The essence of the self-adjusting model is that, based on Kalman’s approach, it is proposed to set the smoothing parameter for each time moment. Such a parameter is determined depending on the resulting current forecast error, taking into consideration the real and unknown dynamics of the studied series and noise. That does not require the selection of the smoothing parameter characteristic of known models. In addition, the proposed Brown’s model, unlike the known modifications, does not require setting a dynamics model of the level of the examined time series. The self-adjusting model provides negligible errors and efficiency of the forecast. The operability of the devised model was checked using an example of the experimental time series for the current measure of the recurrence of the increments of the state of the air medium in the laboratory chamber during alcohol combustion. As quantitative indicators of the quality of the forecast error, the current values for the square and absolute values were considered. It has been established that the current square of the forecast error is more than six orders of magnitude smaller compared to the case of a fixed smoothing parameter from a beyond-the-limit set. However, the current square of the forecast error for abrupt changes in the dynamics of the series level is half that of the fixed parameter of the beyond-the-limit set. It is noted that the results confirm the feasibility of the proposed self-adjusting Brown’s model
The main purpose of the article is to identify and organize the main threats to the effective management of personnel potential in the public administration system. The object of the study is the personnel potential management system. The main scientific task will be to identify and organize the main threats to the effective management of personnel potential in the public administration system for a better understanding of which measures should be prioritized and which should not. The research methodology involves the application of modern econometric methods to achieve the set goal in the form of identifying and organizing the main threats to the management of personnel potential in the public administration system. The importance of the study of the theoretical and methodological principles of personnel management in the system of public administration has been proven. The key aspects that reveal the essence of human resource management in the public administration system are characterized. The importance of the human resources management system for public administration is proven. The key aspects of the influence of personnel potential management elements on the public administration system are determined. As a result, the main threats to the effective management of personnel potential in the public administration system were identified. As a result of the study, the main threats to the effective management of personnel potential in the public administration system were sorted out. Thus, it has been established which threats require an operational response, which are tactical, and which are strategic. The study has limitations and is manifested in the failure to take into account all possible threats to the management of personnel potential in the system of public administration. In our study, only a number of internal threats to the management of personnel potential to the system of public administration were taken into account. Further research should be devoted to countermeasures and external threats to the effective management of personnel potential in the public administration system.
It has been established that at today's stage of development of the democratic Ukrainian society, security issues come to the fore. Mechanisms for responding to crisis situations occupy a special place in the state's national security system. The appropriate level of provision of the state and the population against the threat of crisis situations that threaten national security is a guarantee of sustainable development of society, and this proves the relevance of the chosen research topic. The purpose of the article is the scientific substantiation of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the phenomenon of crisis situations that threaten national security and the provision of practical recommendations for further improvement and development of appropriate response mechanisms of the components of the security and defense sector of Ukraine. It was determined that modern conflicts require a comprehensive solution, as well as the participation of various departments, power structures and organizations in ensuring the safety of citizens, protecting the constitutional system, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, in eliminating grave consequences, etc. Under such conditions, the security forces of the security and defense sector of Ukraine play an important role. Today, global globalization processes contribute to the emergence and aggravation of armed conflicts of various levels of intensity. Therefore, the modern theory of international law includes international organizations (UN, NATO, etc.) as possible subjects of international armed conflicts. In addition, recent events in the world clearly show the growth of terrorist attacks, and later military conflicts, based on the processes of globalization. Analyzing the normative legal documents that regulate the defining principles of the functioning of the national security system, it was established that a new term "crisis situations that threaten the national security of Ukraine" was introduced, which characterizes the situation on the eve of the introduction of a special period. These terms are also used in the terminological apparatus used during the response of the components of the security and defense sector to threats to the national security of Ukraine. A key point during the emergence of crisis situations is the introduction of appropriate response mechanisms that require the involvement of additional forces and resources. It was determined that in further scientific research it is necessary to substantiate the proposals for solving the scientific problem regarding the functioning and development of mechanisms for responding to crisis situations that threaten the national security of Ukraine.
Проаналізовано правові та організаційно забезпечення захисту критичної інфраструктури держави в Україні системи захисту критичної інфраструктури як фактор з абезпечення націонал країни в умовах гібридної війни. Розглянуто також перспективи оптимізації системи захисту критичної інфраструктури шляхом подальшого активного впровадження у діяльність суб національної безпеки методології ризик Визначено напрями організаційно-правового та фінансового забезпечення цього процесу.Ключові слова: критична інфраструктура, національна безпека, національна стійкість, об'єкт критичної інфраструктури, захист критичної інфраструктури, ризиками, програмно-цільовий підхід.
Results of the study of the significance of criminalistics science in ensuring crimes combating at critical infrastructure facilities are presented. It is emphasized that the theoretical and practical significance of the science of criminalistics science and its element as a mechanism for committing crimes in general, and on objects of critical infrastructure in particular, should be defined as the doctrine of the organization of a systematic investigation of a crime, effective detection, collection and research of evidence in accordance with the norms of criminal procedure law and on the prevention of crimes by applying for these purposes special methods and means developed on the basis of natural, technical and other special sciences and studying the mechanism of crimes at the object of critical infrastructure and the formation of evidence. The author defines that the mechanism of committing a crime at a critical infrastructure facility should be understood as the process of committing a crime, including its method and all actions of the criminal, accompanied by the formation of material and non-material traces, which can be used for the disclosure and investigation of the crime. It was concluded that the concept of criminalistics characteristics of a crime committed at a critical infrastructure facility is a derivative result of the perceived need to develop a criminalistics theory of a crime committed at a critical infrastructure facility. Studying the mechanism of a crime committed at a critical infrastructure facility is also of great practical importance for the investigation of the event that took place, as it allows us to understand the relationship between the methods of committing crimes and the methods of their disclosure. It is the effectiveness of the practical use of criminalistics methods of learning about an event that took place at a critical infrastructure facility that is ensured only if the study of criminalistics methods is carried out on the basis of cognition of the general laws of dialectical materialism, specific to its subject, and the features of the system-structural approach, oriented in the formation of criminalistics for the solution of applied practical tasks.
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