We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic. To this end, we exploit a simple SIS-like (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a collective economic resource associated with the average amount of money or income per economic agent. The coupling mechanism in such a system is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law. In this case, economic resource formally plays the role of effective market temperature and the minimum level of resource consumption is associated with activation energy. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion, so that the epidemic could ultimately drive the system to a collapse at nonzero activation energy because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre-epidemic state or a poorer post-epidemic state. We demonstrate that the system's collapse can partially be mitigated by external subsidies meaning constant resource inflow from some external source or by means of debt interpreted as a negative resource. We also consider a simple quarantine scenario and show that it can lead to different socioeconomic outcomes, depending on initial resource (market temperature) and the minimum level of resource consumption (activation energy).
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.