Inhaled mannitol, 400 mg twice a day, resulted in improved lung function over 26 weeks, which was sustained after an additional 26 weeks of treatment. The safety profile was also acceptable, demonstrating the potential role for this chronic therapy for CF. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00630812).
Clinical trials that stop early for benefit have a treatment difference that overestimates the true effect. The consequences of this fact have been extensively debated in the literature. Some researchers argue that early stopping, or truncation, is an important source of bias in treatment effect estimates, particularly when truncated studies are incorporated into meta-analyses. Such claims are bound to lead some systematic reviewers to consider excluding truncated studies from evidence synthesis. We therefore investigated the implications of this strategy by examining the properties of sequentially monitored studies conditional on reaching the final analysis. As well as estimation bias, we studied information bias measured by the difference between standard measures of statistical information, such as sample size, and the actual information based on the conditional sampling distribution. We found that excluding truncated studies leads to underestimation of treatment effects and overestimation of information. Importantly, the information bias increases with the estimation bias, meaning that greater estimation bias is accompanied by greater overweighting in a meta-analysis. Simulations of meta-analyses confirmed that the bias from excluding truncated studies can be substantial. In contrast, when meta-analyses included truncated studies, treatment effect estimates were essentially unbiased. Previous analyses comparing treatment effects in truncated and non-truncated studies are shown not to be indicative of bias in truncated studies. We conclude that early stopping of clinical trials is not a substantive source of bias in meta-analyses and recommend that all studies, both truncated and non-truncated, be included in evidence synthesis.
In recent years, there has been a prominent discussion in the literature about the potential for overestimation of the treatment effect when a clinical trial stops at an interim analysis due to the experimental treatment showing a benefit over the control. However, there has been much less attention paid to the converse issue, namely, that sequentially monitored clinical trials which did not stop early for benefit tend to underestimate the treatment effect. In meta-analyses of many studies, these two sources of bias will tend to balance each other to produce an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect. However, for the interpretation of a single study in isolation, underestimation due to interim analysis may be an important consideration. In this paper, we discuss the nature of this underestimation, including theoretical and simulation results demonstrating that it can be substantial in some contexts. Furthermore, we show how a conditional approach to estimation, in which we condition on the study reaching its final analysis, may be used to validly inflate the observed treatment difference from a sequentially monitored clinical trial. Expressions for the conditional bias and information are derived, and these are used in supplied R code that computes the bias-adjusted estimate and an associated confidence interval. As well as simulation results demonstrating the validity of the methods, we present a data analysis example from a pivotal clinical trial in cardiovascular disease. The methods will be most useful when an unbiased treatment effect estimate is critical, such as in cost-effectiveness analysis or risk prediction.
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