This article presents the results the adapted complex methodology operation for the pre-estimating analysis of the dynamics of tourist flow time series decomposition in the Dombai ski village, the features of which are in the combined use of both classical and new “nonlinear” statistics. The methods proposed and tested by the authors are presented in the form of a pre-estimating model for assessing the tourist flow time series trend stability. The following methods of nonlinear dynamics were tested: the method of the normalized Hurst range, phase-plane analysis. The methods of fractal analysis used and adapted by the authors ensure the identification and assessment of a number of socio-economic time series fundamental qualitative and quantitative pre-estimating characteristics, namely, the presence of memory, including long-term memory, its depth, which in turn can determine the process as persistent (antipersistent, trend-resistant or reverse) to reveal the noise color.
Prebreeding research on Malus domestica Borkh. specimens was conducted to broaden the genetic diversity of cross breeding components for faster creation of cultivars of adaptive and technological orientation. Genealogical analysis has practical value in the study of the apple trees gene pool for accelerated development of cultivars with desired properties. Genealogical analysis of 55 apple cultivars from the gene pool of branch of the Department of Horticulture of Kuban State Agrarian University - Krymsk Experimental breeding station (Krymsk), complex donors were selected by traits of immunity to scab and high quality of fruits - ‘Gold Rush’, ‘Pristine’, ‘Enterprise’. Cultivar ‘Golden Delicious’ was selected as a “hidden” donor by the trait of medium (autumn) ripening time.
By using the phase analysis algorithm mechanism and the visualization and data analysis methods, the authors clearly show the resulting synergistic effect from the complex socio-economic processes research in the context of the triad results: the initial time series, a number of its increments and aggregated data. The article is devoted to the adaptation of mathematical methods of nonlinear dynamics and the description of the tool for obtaining pre-forecast information about complex economic processes, in particular, the phase analysis algorithm testing in the research of the time series of the tourist flow to the Dombai ski village of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic. Phase analysis is the method for studying local fluctuations in a time series that are asymmetric, irregular, and have an unstable period.
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