The complexity of sectarian conflicts in the North West geopolitical zone of Nigeria has sparked renewed interest on its economic, social and political implications. In view of the unending controversies surrounding the complex history of violent conflicts, this paper examines the development effects of humanitarian uprising and rural banditry in Southern Kaduna. The paper adopted a survey research design and utilized a well-structured questionnaire to elicit data from 125 respondents in five local government areas in Southern Kaduna. Combinations of descriptive and inferential statistics in addition to logit regression estimation formed basis for the data analysis. The findings reveal that that high incidence of cattle rustling and village raids increase the odd of poverty in Southern Kaduna. Similarly, it was observed that with high incidence of kidnapping in the study area, the likelihood of poverty increases. Additionally, the findings reveal that high incidence of cattle rustling increases the likelihood of unemployment. The result further reveals that high incidence of village raids increases the odd of unemployment in the study area. The implication of these findings is that the incidence and escalation of cattle rustling and village raids increase socio-economic deprivation with rising levels of poverty and unemployment. It is therefore, reasonable to conclude that the myriad of sectarian conflicts poses a threat to the development of Southern Kaduna and government has failed to adopt appropriate and workable civilian protection strategy in addressing the increasing wave of humanitarian uprising and rural banditry in the affected areas. Owing to the findings, it is recommended amongst others that relevant stakeholders such as government, religious leaders, traditional rulers, community leaders and development partners should build and sustain inter-religious engagement and dialogue as a pathway to sustainable peaceful co-existence and economic prosperity in Southern Kaduna.
This study deepens the understanding of the dynamic relationship between trinity policy trade-offs and GNI per capita in Nigeria between 1980 and 2020. The external reserve is introduced to the empirical model in recognition of its role in stimulating the effectiveness of trinity policy goals. Data for the variables were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) among others. Descriptive statistics, Phillips-Perron unit root test, bounds cointegration and ARDL model as well as Tado-Yamamoto causality form basis for data analysis. The unit root test results reveal that the variables are mixed integrated. This necessitates the application of the bounds cointegration test. As observed from the results, a long-run relationship exists between GNI per capita and trinity policy indexes. It was found from the ARDL estimates that monetary autonomy and capital mobility have a significant positive effect on GNI per capita in both the short and long run. This suggests that more monetary policy sovereignty and openness of the financial architecture yield positive benefits of improved living standard. The result further showed evidence of long-run causality flowing from external reserve to GNI per capita. This finding explains why policymakers in Nigeria have continued to prioritize external reserve build-up for sterilized intervention and stimulating policy effectiveness. Given the findings, this study recommends that policymakers should strive to maintain appreciable monetary autonomy and gradually collapse restrictions on cross-border capital flows to improve economic well-being in Nigeria.
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