Background: Few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of extreme cold events on mortality in subtropical regions.Objective: In the present study we aimed to investigate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality and the possibility of mortality displacement in three subtropical cities in China.Methods: Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data were collected from 2006 to 2009 in Guangzhou, Nanxiong (no air pollutants), and Taishan. We used a polynomial distributed lag model (DLM) to analyze the relationship between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. To observe the mortality displacement of the cold spell, we estimated the cumulative effects at lag0, lag0–6, lag0–13, lag0–20, and lag0–27 separately.Results: During the 2008 cold spell, the cumulative risk of nonaccidental mortality increased significantly in Guangzhou [relative risk (RR) = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.14] and Taishan (RR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.40) when lagged up to 4 weeks after the cold spell ended. Estimated effects at lag0–27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (≥ 75 years of age) than for those 0–64 years of age. Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan. However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0–27.Conclusion: We found associations between the 2008 cold spell and increased mortality in the three subtropical cities of China. The lag effect structure of the cold spell varied with location and the type of mortality, and evidence of short-term mortality displacement was inconsistent. These findings suggest that extreme cold is an important public health problem in subtropical regions.

Knowing the effect of thinning on forest ecosystem services is an important aspect of sustainable forest management. This study analyzed the traditional thinning on tree growth and soil nutrients in the Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook) plantations. The Chinese fir plantations were 11 years old with different initial densities in Jinji (4000 tree·ha−1), and Yingde (3000 tree·ha−1), Xiaolong (2000 tree·ha−1) forest farms, and 20 years old in Yangmei (2000 tree·ha−1) forest farm. The thinning intensity was 35% in Yangmei and Xiaolong forest farms, and 43% in Jinji and Yingde forest farms. Tree growth was measured as the increment of diameter at breast height and stand volume; soil nutrients were measured as pH, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at 0–10 cm soil. The thinning led to an increase in the diameter of trees in all study plots, with the fastest growth rate in Jinji (22.02%) forest farm. The stand volume growth rate was higher in thinning plots than in control plots, with the highest volume growth rate in Xiaolong (27.8%), due to its higher leaf area index and lower density. There was an increasing pattern of C and N contents in the higher initial density plots after thinning (Jinji and Yingde forest farms). During the extreme drought year in 2021, the thinning mitigated the changes in soil acidity and soil moisture, which indicated that thinning could also increase drought tolerance in the short term. Thinning response studies frequently focus on the long-term effect; our results demonstrate how thinning promotes tree growth in the short term.

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