This paper employs Granger causality tests to identify the impacts of historical information from global financial markets on their current levels in 30-day windows. The dataset consists primarily of the daily index levels of the (1) open, (2) closed, (3) intraday high, (4) intraday low, and (5) trading volume series for the world's 37 most influential equity market indexes, two crude oil prices, a gold price, and four major money market prices in the United States are used as control groups. Our results indicate a persistent impact of historical information from global markets on their current levels, and this impact duplicates itself in a cyclical pattern consistently over decades. Such persistence in the patterns causes some market indexes to be upgraded to global or regional market leaders. These findings can be interpreted as constituting violations of the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. The results also reveal recursive impacts of information in these markets and the existence of an information digestion effect.
Bitcoin has two major roles: as currency and as financial asset. This paper attempts to address these roles: whether Bitcoin is a real currency, and what its financial features are. Using daily data of the exchange rates quoted from the world major Bitcoin dealer since the inception of Bitcoin and the spot market exchange rates, we calculate the triangle arbitrage asset price to decompose the features of this currency. The results suggest significant liquidity discount of Bitcoin and risk premium as a financial asset in terms of British Pound Sterling (2.46%) and Chinese Yuan (0.3%). There is idiosyncratic risk component associated with Bitcoin implied by the Granger causality tests. Bitcoin, as investment objectives instead of currency unit, is associated with excess risk and low returns. Such poor performance discourages investors to spend Bitcoin as currency and to pursue the arbitrage profit. Investors store and hold Bitcoin as fixed asset. In addition, both arbitrage stickiness and low Treynor ratio are persistent over time.
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