Biological coloration presents a canvas for the study of ecological and evolutionary processes. Enduring interest in colour‐based phenotypes has driven, and been driven by, improved techniques for quantifying colour patterns in ever‐more relevant ways, yet the need for flexible, open frameworks for data processing and analysis persists. Here we introduce pavo 2, the latest iteration of the r package pavo. This release represents the extensive refinement and expansion of existing methods, as well as a suite of new tools for the cohesive analysis of the spectral and (now) spatial structure of colour patterns and perception. At its core, the package retains a broad focus on (a) the organization and processing of spectral and spatial data, and tools for the alternating (b) visualization, and (c) analysis of data. Significantly, pavo 2 introduces image‐analysis capabilities, providing a cohesive workflow for the comprehensive analysis of colour patterns. We demonstrate the utility of pavo with a brief example centred on mimicry in Heliconius butterflies. Drawing on visual modelling, adjacency, and boundary strength analyses, we show that the combined spectral (colour and luminance) and spatial (pattern element distribution and boundary salience) features of putative models and mimics are closely aligned. pavo 2 offers a flexible and reproducible environment for the analysis of colour, with renewed potential to assist researchers in answering fundamental questions in sensory ecology and evolution.

Biological colouration presents a canvas for the study of ecological and evolutionary processes. Enduring interest in colour-based phenotypes has driven, and been driven by, improved techniques for quantifying colour patterns in ever-more relevant ways, yet the need for flexible, open frameworks for data processing and analysis persists.Here we introduce pavo 2, the latest iteration of the R package pavo. This release represents the extensive refinement and expansion of existing methods, as well as a suite of new tools for the cohesive analysis of the spectral and (now) spatial structure of colour patterns and perception. At its core, the package retains a broad focus on (a) the organisation and processing of spectral and spatial data, and tools for the alternating (b) visualisation, and (c) analysis of data. Significantly, pavo 2 introduces image-analysis capabilities, providing a cohesive workflow for the comprehensive analysis of colour patterns.We demonstrate the utility of pavo with a brief example centred on mimicry in Heliconius butterflies. Drawing on visual modelling, adjacency, and boundary strength analyses, we show that the combined spectral (colour and luminance) and spatial (pattern element distribution and boundary salience) features of putative models and mimics are closely aligned.pavo 2 offers a flexible and reproducible environment for the analysis of colour, with renewed potential to assist researchers in answering fundamental questions in sensory ecology and evolution.

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, governments around the World have implemented a combination of public health responses based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), with significant social and economic consequences. Though most European countries have overcome the first epidemic wave, it remains of high priority to quantify the efficiency of different NPIs to inform preparedness for an impending second wave. In this study, combining capture-recapture methods with Bayesian inference in an age-structured mathematical model, we use a unique European dataset compiled by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) to quantify the efficiency of 24 NPIs and their combinations (referred to as public health responses, PHR) in reducing SARS-Cov-2 transmission rates in 32 European countries. Of 166 unique PHR tested, we found that median decrease in viral transmission was 74%, which is enough to suppress the epidemic. PHR efficiency was positively associated with the number of NPIs implemented. We found that bans on mass gatherings had the largest effect among NPIs, followed by school closures, teleworking, and stay home orders. Partial implementation of most NPIs resulted in lower than average response efficiency. This first large-scale estimation of NPI and PHR efficiency against SARS-COV-2 transmission in Europe suggests that a combination of NPIs targeting different population groups should be favored to control future epidemic waves.

Iridescent colours are colours that change with viewing or illumination geometry. While they are widespread in many living organisms, most evolutionary studies on iridescence do not take into account their full complexity. Few studies try to precisely characterize what makes iridescent colours special: their angular dependency. Yet, it is likely that this angular dependency has biological functions and is therefore submitted to evolutionary pressures. For this reason, evolutionary biologists need a repeatable method to measure iridescent colours as well as variables to precisely quantify the angular dependency. In this study, we use a theoretical approach to propose five variables that allow one to fully describe iridescent colours at every angle combination. Based on the results, we propose a new measurement protocol and statistical method to reliably characterize iridescence while minimizing the required number of time-consuming measurements. We use hummingbird iridescent feathers and butterfly iridescent wings as test cases to demonstrate the strengths of this new method. We show that our method is precise enough to be potentially used at intraspecific level while being also time-efficient enough to encompass large taxonomic scales.

Background Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported from a standardised source over the next one to four weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results Over 52 weeks we collected and combined up to 28 forecast models for 32 countries. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 84% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=862), and 92% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=746). Across a one to four week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over four weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than two weeks. Code and data availability All data and code are publicly available on Github: covid19-forecast-hub-europe/euro-hub-ensemble.

10Iridescent colours are colours that change depending on the angle of illumination or observation. They are 11 produced when light is reflected by multilayer structures or diffracted by gratings. While this phenomenon is well 12 understood for simple optical systems, it remains unclear how complex biological structures interact with light 13 to produce iridescence. There are very few comparative studies at interspecific level (often focusing on a single 14 colour patch for each species), resulting in an underestimation of structure diversity. Using an interdisciplinary 15 approach combining physics and biology, we here quantify the colour and structure of 36 hummingbirds species evenly 16 distributed across the phylogeny. We explore at least 2 patches per species, which are assumed to be under different 17 selective regimes. For each patch, we measure structural features (number of layers, layer width, irregularity, spacing, 18 etc.) of the feathers at different scales using both optical and electronic microscopy and we measure colour using a 19 novel approach we developed to encompass the full complexity of iridescence, including its angular dependency. We 20 discover an unsuspected diversity of structures producing iridescence in hummingbirds. We also study the effect of 21 several structural features on the colour of the resulting signal, using both an empirical and modelling approach. Our 22 findings demonstrate the need to take into account multiple patches per species and suggest possible evolutionary 23 pressures causing the evolutionary transitions from one melanosome type to another. 24 Hummingbirds are famous for their bright and shiny colours which change with the illumination or observation 26 angle: a phenomenon known as iridescence. Iridescent colours are produced by the interaction of light with periodic 27 nanometre-scale structures such as multilayers or diffraction gratings and are widespread among many taxa [1]. But few 28 taxa display colours as bright and as saturated as the hummingbirds (Trochilidae family). Most hummingbird species 29 harbour two visually distinct types of iridescent colour patches, as illustrated in fig. S1: directional patches, which are 30 only visible at a very narrow angle range [2] and are often very bright and saturated, and diffuse patches, for which 31 some colour is visible from any angle [2] and that are often not as bright as directional patches. Directional patches are 32 often located on facial or ventral patches and thought to be involved in communication while diffuse patches are often 33 located on dorsal patches and thought to be involved in camouflage [3]. Additionally, although all hummingbird species 34 display some degree of iridescence, striking differences can be noticed between the various species and body patches in 35 terms of brightness (describing how much light is reflected by the object), saturation (describing the colour "purity") 36 and directionality [4]. 37Yet, the structural bases of this intra-individual and interspecific diversity...

Following the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) in France in early December 2020, we used duck mortality data from the index farm to investigate within-flock transmission dynamics. A stochastic epidemic model was fitted to the daily mortality data and model parameters were estimated using an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm. The model predicted that the first bird in the flock was infected 5 days (95% credible interval, CI: 3-6) prior to the day of suspicion and that the transmission rate was 4.1 new infections per day (95% CI: 2.8-5.8). On average, ducks became infectious 4.1 h (95% CI: 0.7-9.1) after infection and remained infectious for 4.3 days (95% CI: 2.8-5.7). The model also predicted that 34% (50% prediction interval: 8%-76%) of birds would already be infectious by the day of suspicion, emphasizing the substantial latent threat this virus could pose to other poultry farms and to neighbouring wild birds. This study illustrates how mechanistic models can help provide rapid relevant insights that contribute to the management of infectious disease outbreaks of farmed animals. These methods can be applied to future outbreaks and the resulting parameter estimates made available to veterinary services within a few hours.

Identification errors between closely related, co-occurring, species may lead to misdirected social interactions such as costly interbreeding or misdirected aggression. This selects for divergence in traits involved in species identification among co-occurring species, resulting from character displacement. On the other hand, predation may select for crypsis, potentially leading co-occurring species that share the same environment and predators to have a similar appearance. However, few studies have explored how these antagonistic processes influence colour at the community level. Here, we assess colour clustering and overdispersion in 189 hummingbird communities, tallying 112 species, across Ecuador and suggest possible evolutionary mechanisms at stake by controlling for species phylogenetic relatedness. In hummingbirds, most colours are iridescent structural colours, defined as colours that change with the illumination or observation angle. Because small variations in the underlying structures can have dramatic effects on the resulting colours and because iridescent structures can produce virtually any hue and brightness, we expect iridescent colours to respond finely to selective pressures. Moreover, we predict that hue angular dependence -a specific aspect of iridescent colours -may be used as an additional channel for species recognition. In our hummingbird assemblages in Ecuador, we find support for colour overdispersion in ventral and facial patches at the community level even after controlling for the phylogeny, especially on iridescence-related traits, suggesting character displacement among co-occurring species. We also find colour clustering at the community level on dorsal patches, suspected to be involved in camouflage, suggesting that the same cryptic colours are selected among co-occurring species.