Aim To investigate whether feral cats influence the distribution of Australia's largest remnant population of the threatened brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat Conilurus penicillatus and examine whether they influenced the extinction probability of C. penicillatus over a 15‐year period (2000–2015). Location Melville Island, northern Australia. Methods In 2015, small mammal surveys were conducted at 88 sites across Melville Island, 86 of which had previously been surveyed in 2000–2002. We used single‐season occupancy models to investigate correlates of the current distribution of C. penicillatus and dynamic occupancy models to investigate correlates of C. penicillatus local extinction. Results Our results show that C. penicillatus, which once occurred more widely across the island, is now restricted to parts of the island where feral cats are rarely detected and shrub density is high. Our results suggest that feral cats are driving C. penicillatus towards extinction on Melville Island, and hence have likely been a significant driver in the decline of this species in northern Australia more broadly. The impact of feral cats appears to be mitigated by vegetation structure. Main conclusions The ongoing development and implementation of methods to effectively reduce feral cat densities, coupled with the management of landscape processes to maintain shrub density, through fire management and the removal of large exotic herbivores, will contribute substantially to conserving this threatened species. This study demonstrates that the distribution of species can be strongly influenced by top‐down factors such as predation, thereby highlighting the importance of including biotic interactions when investigating the distribution of predation‐susceptible species.

Australia has contributed a disproportionate number of the world's mammal extinctions over the past 200 years, with the greatest loss of species occurring through the continent's southern and central arid regions. Many taxonomically and ecologically similar species are now undergoing widespread decline across the northern Australian mainland, possibly driven by predation by feral cats and changed fire regimes. Here, we report marked recent declines of native mammal species in one of Australia's few remaining areas that support an intact mammal assemblage, Melville Island, the largest island off the northern Australian coast. We have previously reported a marked decline on Melville Island of the threatened brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Conilurus penicillatus) over the period 2000-2015, linked to predation by feral cats. We now report a 62% reduction in small mammal trapsuccess and a 36% reduction in site-level species richness over this period. There was a decrease in trap-success of 90% for the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), 64% for the brush-tailed rabbit-rat and 63% for the black-footed tree-rat (Mesembriomys gouldii), but no decline for the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). These results suggest that populations of native mammals on Melville Island are exhibiting similar patterns of decline to those recorded in Kakadu National Park two decades earlier, and across the northern Australian mainland more generally. Without the implementation of effective management actions, these species are likely to be lost from one of their last remaining strongholds, threatening to increase Australia's already disproportionate contribution to global mammal extinctions.

AimAn interaction between reduced habitat structural complexity and predation by feral cats (Felis catus) has been hypothesized as the primary driver of mammal decline in northern Australia. However, we have a limited understanding of the drivers of the distribution and abundance of feral cats at a landscape scale, including whether the occurrence of a top predator, the dingo (Canis familiaris [dingo]), limits feral cat populations. We modelled feral cat and dingo site occurrence, to provide the first broad‐scale assessment of their distributional patterns and co‐occurrence within monsoonal Australia.LocationAbout 370,000 km2 of monsoonal area in the Northern Territory.MethodsWe surveyed 376 sites using camera traps. We used single‐ and two‐species occupancy models to investigate feral cat and dingo site occurrence and the influence of dingoes on feral cat occupancy. We included predictor variables that relate to hypotheses of predator occurrence, including both environmental and disturbance‐related variables.ResultsFeral cat occurrence and dingo occurrence were best predicted by indices of habitat structural complexity; feral cat occurrence declined with increasing productivity, except in areas of relatively high fire activity (fire frequency and extent), and dingo occurrence declined with terrain ruggedness. We found no evidence that dingoes are spatially limiting feral cat occurrence.Main conclusionsOur findings suggest the protection and enhancement of habitat structural complexity at both the local and landscape scale could enable conservation managers to reduce the exposure of small‐ and medium‐sized mammals to feral cats and dingoes. This can most likely be achieved through improved fire and feral herbivore management, which is a more feasible management option than lethal predator control.

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ContextThere is an increasing awareness that feral cats play a key role in driving the ongoing decline of small mammals across northern Australia; yet, the factors that control the distribution, abundance and behaviour of feral cats are poorly understood. These key knowledge gaps make it near-impossible for managers to mitigate the impacts of cats on small mammals. AimsWe investigated the environmental correlates of feral cat activity and abundance across the savanna woodlands of Melville Island, the larger of the two main Tiwi Islands, northern Australia. MethodsWe conducted camera-trap surveys at 88 sites, and related cat activity and abundance to a range of biophysical variables, either measured in the field or derived from remotely sensed data. Key resultsWe found that feral cat activity and abundance tended to be highest in areas characterised by severe disturbance regimes, namely high frequencies of severe fires and high feral herbivore activity. ConclusionsOur results have contributed to the growing body of research demonstrating that in northern Australian savanna landscapes, disturbance regimes characterised by frequent high-severity fires and grazing by feral herbivores may benefit feral cats. This is most likely to be a result of high-severity fire and grazing removing understorey biomass, which increases the time that the habitat remains in an open state in which cats can hunt more efficiently. This is due to both the frequent and extensive removal, and longer-term thinning of ground layer vegetation by severe fires, as well as the suppressed post-fire recovery of ground layer vegetation due to grazing by feral herbivores. ImplicationsManagement that reduces the frequency of severe fires and the density of feral herbivores could disadvantage feral cat populations on Melville Island. A firm understanding of how threatening processes interact, and how they vary across landscapes with different environmental conditions, is critical for ensuring management success.

The increasing awareness that a fire regime that promotes biodiversity in one system can threaten biodiversity in another has resulted in a shift away from fire management based on vague notions of maximising pyrodiversity, towards determining the optimal fire regime based on the demonstrated requirements of target species. We utilised a long‐running, replicated fire experiment on Melville Island, the largest island off the northern Australian coast, to test the importance of pyrodiversity for native mammals in a northern Australian savanna landscape. We first developed statistical models to determine how native mammal abundance has responded to nine years of experimentally‐manipulated fire frequency. Next, given each species' modelled response to fire frequency, we identified the level of pyrodiversity and optimal mix of fire frequencies that would be expected to maximise mammal diversity and abundance, and minimise extinction risk. This was done for both the entire mammal assemblage and for the mammal species currently declining on Melville Island. Fire frequency was a significant predictor of abundance of the northern brown bandicoot Isoodon macrourus, black‐footed tree‐rat Mesembriomys gouldii, brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat Conilurus penicillatus, grassland melomys Melomys burtoni, pale field‐rat Rattus tunneyi, and mice/dunnarts but not for the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula. The geometric mean abundance (GMA) of the entire mammal assemblage was positively associated with pyrodiversity, but peaked at an intermediate value. Hence, maximising pyrodiversity would reduce native mammal assemblage GMA below its potential maximum. The fire history for an area that maximised the entire native mammal assemblage GMA consisted of 57% long‐unburnt, 43% triennially burnt and <1% annually burnt. Pyrodiversity did not reduce the extinction risk, nor increase the GMA of declining mammals above that predicted in areas entirely annually or triennially burnt. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate a useful approach with which to develop fire management strategies based on the demonstrated requirements of target species. By comparing the optimal fire regime identified for the conservation of threatened species and that identified for the entire mammal assemblage, we demonstrate the flexibility of this approach to tailor fire management to address specific management priorities in other fire‐prone environments.

Conservation management is improved by incorporating information about the spatial distribution of population genetic diversity into planning strategies. Northern Australia is the location of some of the world’s most severe ongoing declines of endemic mammal species, yet we have little genetic information from this regional mammal assemblage to inform a genetic perspective on conservation assessment and planning. We used next-generation sequencing data from remnant populations of the threatened brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Conilurus penicillatus) to compare patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation across the landscape and investigate standardised hierarchical genomic diversity metrics to better understand brush-tailed rabbit-rat population genomic structure. We found strong population structuring, with high levels of differentiation between populations (FST = 0.21–0.78). Two distinct genomic lineages between the Tiwi Islands and mainland are also present. Prioritisation analysis showed that one population in both lineages would need to be conserved to retain at least ~80% of alleles for the species. Analysis of standardised genomic diversity metrics showed that approximately half of the total diversity occurs among lineages (δ = 0.091 from grand total γ = 0.184). We suggest that a focus on conserving remnant island populations may not be appropriate for the preservation of species-level genomic diversity and adaptive potential, as these populations represent a small component of the total diversity and a narrow subset of the environmental conditions in which the species occurs. We also highlight the importance of considering both genomic and ecological differentiation between source and receiving populations when considering translocations for conservation purposes.

Many mammals in Australia's tropical north are in severe decline, yet understanding of the drivers of this decline is remarkably limited. Recently, Fisher et al. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014, 23, 181−190) examined the traits that are associated with declining marsupial species in northern Australia. They concluded that, in this region, declines are most pronounced in the smallest species (those with the lowest body mass). This is in strong contrast to the significant declines that occurred earlier in central and southern Australia before the mid 20th century, which were most pronounced in medium‐sized species, the so‐called ‘critical weight range’ (35−5500 g). Here we show that Fisher et al. have misinterpreted their dataset; in northern Australia, the pattern of mammal decline in relation to body mass is remarkably similar to that in central and southern Australia, with mammal decline strongly concentrated in the critical weight range, suggesting fundamentally similar drivers between north and south.