Forest ecologists often evaluate how well the species composition of saplings in the understory matches that of the canopy: absence of juveniles suggests that a tree species is suffering population decline. Here we offer a theoretical and empirical test of this assertion using data from a 50-ha census plot in Panama. Theory indicates that higher rates of population change, lambda, lead to more steeply declining size distributions (more juveniles relative to adults). But other parameters also affect the size distribution: lower growth rate of juveniles and lower survival at any size produce more steeply declining size distributions as well. Empirical evaluation of 216 tree populations showed that juvenile growth was the strongest predictor of size distribution, in the direction predicted by theory. Size distribution did correlate with population growth, but weakly and only in understory species, not canopy species. Size distribution did not correlate with the growth rate of larger individuals nor with survival. Results suggest that static in formation on the size distribution is not a good predictor of future population trends, while demographic information is. Fast-growing species will have fewer juveniles in the understory than slow growing species, even when population growth is equal.

Seed dispersal is a critical but poorly understood life-history stage of plants. Here we use a genetic approach to describe seed dispersal patterns accurately in a natural population of the Neotropical tree species Jacaranda copaia (Bignoniaceae). We used microsatellite genotypes from maternally derived tissue on the diaspore to identify which individual of all possible adult trees in the population was the true source of a given seed collected after it dispersed. Wind-dispersed seeds were captured in two different years in a large array of seed traps in an 84-ha mapped area of tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We were particularly interested in the proportion of seeds that traveled long distances and whether there was evidence for direct dispersal into gaps, which are required for successful recruitment of this pioneer tree species. Maximum likelihood procedures were used to fit single- and multiple-component dispersal kernels to the distance data. Mixture models, with separate distributions near and far, best fit the observed dispersal distances, albeit with considerable uncertainty in the tail. We discuss the results in light of different mechanisms responsible for separate distributions near the adult source and in the tail of the curve.

Although fractals have been applied in ecology for some time, multifractals have, in contrast, received little attention. In this article, we apply multifractals to the species-area relationship and species abundance distributions. We highlight two results: first, species abundance distributions collected at different spatial scales may collapse into a single curve after appropriate renormalization, and second, the power-law form of the species-area relationship and the Shannon, Simpson, and Berger-Parker diversity indices belong to a family of equations relating the species number, species abundance, and area through the moments of the species abundance-probability density function. Explicit formulas for these diversity indices, as a function of area, are derived. Methods to obtain the multifractal spectra from a data set are discussed, and an example is shown with data on tree and shrub species collected in a 50-ha plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Finally, we discuss the implications of the multifractal formalism to the relationship between species range and abundance and the relation between the shape of the species abundance distribution and area.

We extend the neutral theory of macroecology by deriving biodiversity models (relative species abundance and speciesarea relationships) in a local community-metacommunity system in which the local community is embedded within the metacommunity.We first demonstrate that the local species diversity patterns converge to that of the metacommunity as the size (scale) of the embedded local community increases. This result shows that in continuous landscapes no sharp boundaries dividing the communities at the two scales exist; they are an artificial distinction made by the current spatially implicit neutral theory. Second, we remove the artificial restriction that speciation cannot occur in a local community, even if the effects of local speciation are small. Third, we introduce stochasticity into the immigration rate, previously treated as constant, and demonstrate that local species diversity is a function not only of the mean but also of the variance in immigration rate. High variance in immigration rates reduces species diversity in local communities. Finally, we show that a simple relationship exists between the fundamental diversity parameter of neutral theory and Simpson's index for local communities. Derivation of this relationship extends recent work on diversity indices and provides a means of evaluating the effect of immigration on estimates of the fundamental diversity parameter derived from relative species abundance data on local communities.