This paper investigates the relationship between technological finance, high-quality economic growth, and financial stability. Based on data of 30 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) collected between 2004 and 2017, this paper adopts the method of factor analysis to construct comprehensive indexes of technological finance and financial stability before calculating green total factor productivity as the index of high-quality development, using the CRS Multiplicative Model. Then it constructs the spatial SAC model and PVAR model for analyses of the just-mentioned relationship based on the total sample of the nation and regional samples in eastern, middle, and western China, respectively. The results reveal that (1) All samples, whether the total national samples or regional samples of eastern, middle, and western China demonstrate the positive influence of technological finance on high-quality economic development, with an obvious spatial spillover effect. The impact factor is the highest in the eastern region, while the western region holds the lowest factor among the three. (2) Judging by the general national sample, technological finance has an obvious negative shock effect on financial stability within a short period, but the effect gradually dwindles as time goes by. This rule applies to the sample of the eastern region, as its technological finance poses a short-time negative shock effect on financial stability, before gradually diminishing to 0. Neither western nor middle regions have displayed an obvious shock impact on financial stability.
Using a set of Chinese economic data and a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, this study empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the output, consumption, investment, and net export in China. The results find that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is an important factor influencing China’s real economy. Specifically, an increase in U.S. trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on China’s output, consumption, and net export in the short and long run, but it will have a negative impact on investment in the short run and a positive impact in the medium and long run.
Using the monthly data from December 2008 to March 2018 and a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, this paper empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy normalization on the total output, inflation, trade balance, and exchange rates in BRICS. The results show that the Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet shrinking will both lead to a decrease in BRICS’ output, a decline in inflation, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the spillover effects of the Fed’s interest rate hike and shrinking of a balance sheet are both relatively long lasting, but there is a certain difference between the two effects; that is, the Fed’s interest rate hike has a greater impact on the macroeconomic variables of BRICS countries than the shrinking of balance sheet. Based on the conclusions, we propose to establish and improve the regulatory system of international capital flows, pay close attention to commodity prices, and strengthen policy coordination and communication among BRICS countries so as to mitigate the adverse impact of U.S. monetary policy normalization.
Using a set of Chinese economic data and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, this paper investigates the transmission channels of fiscal policy to bank credit in China. We find that increases in tax revenue can increase bank credit through external financing premium channel, collateral channel, and bank liquidity channel. We also find that increases in government spending can reduce bank credit through bank liquidity channel and increase bank credit through external financing premium channel and collateral channel.
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