Enhanced cued recall provides a simple and clinically useful memory test for identifying dementia in the elderly. Because this test induces semantic processing and coordinates encoding and retrieval for maximum recall, genuine memory deficits due to impairment of specific memory processes can be distinguished from apparent memory deficits due to use of inefficient strategies or impairment of other cognitive processes. Since genuine memory deficits in the elderly are usually associated with dementia, their identification is highly predictive of clinical dementia. The present study validates the use of enhanced cued recall as a screening test for dementia in 70 aged subjects. All but one person with a pure amnesia were correctly classified. Enhanced cued recall correctly classified 97% of the 120 subjects in this and the previous study. Enhanced cued recall shows learning not revealed by free recall, providing more accurate measurement of memory, and distinguishes demented from nondemented elderly more accurately than either free recall or recognition.

Poor performance on free recall from FCSR predicts future dementia. These findings support the existence of a preclinical phase of dementia characterized by memory impairment, which is present for at least 5 years before diagnosis.

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Identification of elderly individuals with low and high risk for future dementia has emerged as an important clinical and public health issue. To address this issue, we assessed neuropsychological performance in 317 initially nondemented elderly persons between 75 and 85 years of age and followed them for at least 4 years as part of the Bronx Aging Study. Four measures of cognitive function from the baseline assessment (delayed recall from the Buschke Selective Reminding Test, recall from the Fuld Object Memory Evaluation, the Digit Symbol subtest from the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, and a verbal fluency score) can identify one subgroup with an 85% probability of developing dementia over 4 years and another with a 95% probability of remaining free of dementia. The model achieved an overall positive predictive value of 68%, or three times the base rate, for prediction of the development of dementia in our sample. The overall negative predictive value for prediction of absence of dementia was 88%. Baseline measures of cognitive function, often performed many years before the actual diagnosis of dementia, can provide important information about dementia risk. The group likely to develop dementia becomes a target for preventive or early therapeutic interventions, and the group unlikely to develop dementia can be reassured.

We compared neuropsychological findings in 28 longitudinally evaluated elderly subjects with their postmortem neuropathology, including senile plaque and neurofibrillary tangle counts from standardized sections. Nine of the subjects were not demented when evaluated just prior to their death. Numerous cortical senile plaques and other changes of Alzheimer's disease (AD) occurred in six of nine nondemented old-old subjects. Five of these six subjects had shown decline on yearly neuropsychological tests but their cognitive impairment was too mild to meet clinical criteria for dementia. Whereas cortical senile plaque count did not distinguish well between demented and nondemented subjects, every subject with numerous cortical neurofibrillary tangles was demented. The nondemented subjects with Alzheimer pathology may have had "preclinical" AD, or numerous cortical plaques may occur in some elderly subjects who would never develop clinical dementia.