We investigate the impact of per-unit duties (i.e. tariffs expressed in US dollars per unit of imported product) on world agricultural trade patterns. Using detailed data on trade and tariffs, we show first that they induce higher export unit values, confirming that the Alchian–Allen conjecture can be extended to per-unit duties. Second, we show that this effect is higher for developed countries, which can be explained by their specialization on high-priced products. Third, we find that the restrictive effect of per-unit duties on trade is higher for developing countries.

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Trade elasticity is a crucial parameter in evaluating the welfare impacts of trade liberalization. We estimate trade elasticities at the product level (6-digit of the Harmonized System) by exploiting the variation in bilateral applied tariffs for each product category. The obtained trade elasticities are centered around-5. We show that using homogeneous-instead of product-specific-trade elasticity implies a downward bias in welfare gains from trade in particular for developing countries.

Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.

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