This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan’s Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops’ production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output.
The GCC region has recently witnessed the creation of a customs union between the countries of the region as well as the signature of many free trade areas with countries/blocs outside the region (i.e. US and EU). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential of trade of the GCC countries within the context of the old and the emerging preference trade arrangements in the region of Middle East and North African Countries (MENA). A gravity trade model was estimated based on pooled time series-cross-sectional data of bilateral trade of the
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is two‐fold. First, is to apply the benchmarking approach to the dates export supply chain (DESC) in Oman and Tunisia (taking Tunisia as a benchmark) to identify gaps in the organizational and operational structures of the DESC in the two countries. Second, is to utilize the information generated to put forward recommendations to improve Omani DESC.Design/methodology/approachFour benchmarking dimensions are developed, each dimension with a number of key performance indicators (KPIs). The KPIs are then used in the benchmarking exercise.FindingsResults show that Tunisia is performing better than Oman in all the four dimensions.Originality/valueThe study enables the readers and the stakeholders to gain some valuable insights in the subject matter. A careful analysis of the findings should enable Oman policy makers and stakeholders to produce an industry action plan to correct the gaps and take the lead.
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