We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for first-year mortality (FYM) in incident dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease. We retrospectively examined patient comorbidities and biochemistry, prior to dialysis initiation, using a single-center, prospectively maintained database from 2005-2010, and analyzed these variables in relation to FYM. A total of 983 patients were studied. 22% had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <45%. FYM was 17%, and independent predictors included URate <500 or >600 μmol/l, LVEF <45% (higher odds ratio if <30%), Age >70 years, Arteriopathies (cerebrovascular and/or peripheral-vascular diseases), serum Albumin <30 g/l, and Alkaline phosphatase >80 U/l (p < 0.05, C-statistic 0.74), and these constitute the acronym UREA5. Using linear modeling, risk weightage/integer of 3 was assigned to LVEF <30%, 2 to age >70 years, and 1 to each remaining variable. Cumulative UREA5 scores of ≤1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 were associated with FYM of 6, 8, 22, 31, and 46%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Increasing UREA5 scores were strongly associated with stepwise worsening of FYM after dialysis initiation.
BackgroundStudies comparing patient survival of hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) have yielded conflicting results and no such study was from South-East Asia. This study aimed to compare the survival outcomes of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who started dialysis with HD and PD in Singapore.MethodsSurvival data for a maximum of 5 years from a single-center cohort of 871 ESRD patients starting dialysis with HD (n = 641) or PD (n = 230) from 2005–2010 was analyzed using the flexible Royston-Parmar (RP) model. The model was also applied to a subsample of 225 propensity-score-matched patient pairs and subgroups defined by age, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease.ResultsAfter adjusting for the effect of socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, the risk of death was higher in patients initiating dialysis with PD than those initiating dialysis with HD (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67–2.59; p<0.001), although there was no significant difference in mortality between the two modalities in the first 12 months of treatment. Consistently, in the matched subsample, patients starting PD had a higher risk of death than those starting HD (HR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.30–2.28, p<0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that PD may be similar to or better than HD in survival outcomes among young patients (≤65 years old) without diabetes or cardiovascular disease.ConclusionESRD patients who initiated dialysis with HD experienced better survival outcomes than those who initiated dialysis with PD in Singapore, although survival outcomes may not differ between the two dialysis modalities in young and healthier patients. These findings are potentially confounded by selection bias, as patients were not randomized to the two dialysis modalities in this cohort study.
Hyperlactatemia predicts CI during RCA-CVVH with reasonable discriminatory performance in critically ill patients. Serum lactate surveillance may help preempt issues with citrate toxicity.
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