Observations indicate that over the past several decades, geomorphic processes in the Arctic have been changing or intensifying. Coastal erosion, which currently supplies most of the sediment and carbon to the Arctic Ocean [Rachold et al., 2000], may have doubled since 1955 [Mars and Houseknecht, 2007]. Further inland, expansion of channel networks [Toniolo et al., 2009] and increased river bank erosion [Costard et al., 2007] have been attributed to warming. Lakes, ponds, and wetlands appear to be more dynamic, growing in some areas, shrinking in others, and changing distribution across lowland regions [e.g., Smith et al., 2005]. On the Arctic coastal plain, recent degradation of frozen ground previously stable for thousands of years suggests 10–30% of lowland and tundra landscapes may be affected by even modest warming [Jorgenson et al., 2006]. In headwater regions, hillslope soil erosion and landslides are increasing [e.g., Gooseff et al., 2009].

Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world‐famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

The northern continental slope of the Gulf of Mexico is riddled with numerous subsiding diapiric minibasins bounded by ridges, many but not all of which are connected by channels created by turbidity currents. The region is economically relevant in that many of these diapiric minibasins constitute focal points for the deposition of sand. Some of these sandy deposits in turn serve as excellent reservoirs for hydrocarbons. A better understanding of the ''fill and spill'' process by which minibasins fill with mud and sand as the intervening ridges are dissected by canyons may serve to aid in the location of such reservoirs. In the present paper a theory is developed to describe sediment deposition in minibasins. The theory relies on the hypotheses that the turbidity currents in question are sustained for at least about one hour. Two key and heretofore unrecognized aspects of the ''fill and spill'' process are revealed: (1) the formation of an internal hydraulic jump as a turbidity current spills into a confined basin, and (2) the detrainment of water across a settling interface forming at the top of the ponded turbidity current downstream of the hydraulic jump. It is shown that sufficiently strong detrainment can consume the flow, so that there is no outflow of either water or sediment even with continuous inflow. As the basin fills with sediment, however, overspill is eventually realized. The theory is developed into a numerical model, tested against experiments and applied at field scale in a companion paper.

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The northern continental slope of the Gulf of Mexico is riddled with numerous subsiding diapiric minibasins bounded by ridges, and often connected by channels created by turbidity currents. The region is economically relevant in that these diapiric minibasins constitute excellent focal points for the deposition of sand. These deposits in turn serve as excellent reservoirs for hydrocarbons. A better understanding of the ''fill and spill'' process by which minibasins fill with sediment as the intervening ridges are dissected by canyons may serve to aid in the location of such reservoirs. A theoretical analysis in a companion paper has revealed two key aspects of the ''fill and spill'' process: (1) the formation of an internal hydraulic jump as a turbidity current spills into a confined basin, and (2) the detrainment of water across a settling interface forming at the top of the ponded turbidity current downstream of the hydraulic jump. In that paper it was shown that sufficiently strong detrainment can consume the flow, so that there is no outflow of either water or sediment even with continuous inflow. As the basin fills with sediment, however, overspill is eventually realized. Herein the theory of the companion paper is used as the basis for a numerical model of ponding of turbidity currents. The numerical model is tested and verified against two experiments. In the first of these, detrainment is sufficient to capture an entire sustained turbidity current. In the second of these, detrainment is insufficient to prevent sustained overspill. The principles of similitude using the densimetric Froude number allow upscaling of the experimental results to field scale. A full numerical model is verified against the experiments and applied at field scale. The result is a view of intraslope minibasin sedimentation that has a stronger physical basis than the conceptual models proposed to date.