News items have significant impact on stock markets but the ways is obscure. Many previous works have aimed at finding accurate stock market forecasting models. In this paper, we use text mining and sentiment analysis on Chinese online financial news, to predict Chinese stock tendency and stock prices based on support vector machine (SVM). Firstly, we collect 2,302,692 news items, which date from 1/1/2008 to 1/1/2015. Secondly, based on this dataset, a specific domain stop-word dictionary and a precise sentiment dictionary are formed. Thirdly, we propose a forecasting model using SVM. On the algorithm of SVM implementation, we also propose two parameter optimization algorithms to search for best initial parameter setting. Result shows that parameter G has the main effect, while parameter C's effect is not obvious. Furthermore, support vector regression (SVR) models for different Chinese stocks are similar whereas in support vector classification (SVC) models best parameters are quite differential. Series of contrast experiments show that: a) News has significant influence on stock market; b) Expansion input vector for additional situations when that day has no news data is better than normal input in SVR, yet is worse in SVC; c) SVR shows a fantastic degree of fitting in predicting stock fluctuation while such result has some time lag; d) News effect time lag for stock market is less than two days; e) In SVC, historic stock data has a most efficient time lag which is about 10 days, whereas in SVR this effect is not obvious. In addition, based on the special structure of the input vector, we also design a method to calculate the financial source impact factor. Result suggests that the news quality and audience number both have significant effect on the source impact factor. Besides, for Chinese investors, traditional media has more influence than digital media.If traversing the whole solution space, there is always a best parameter pair to perform in the model. The different part from the LIBSVM's grid search is the evaluation process. For each (c, g) pair, 10 random train dataset and test dataset groups are picked from database. SCC and MSE value of 10 groups will be averaged for evaluating. In such situation, the average SCC and MSE have no statistic meaning and only serve to the evaluation purpose. The optimum solution plane of traverse result is shown below.
To predict air quality (PM2.5 concentrations, et al), many parametric regression models have been developed, while deep learning algorithms are used less often. And few of them takes the air pollution emission or spatial information into consideration or predict them in hour scale. In this paper, we proposed a spatialtemporal GRU-based prediction framework incorporating ground pollution monitoring (GPM), factory emissions (FE), surface meteorology monitoring (SMM) variables to predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations. The dataset for empirical experiments was built based on air quality monitoring in Shenyang, China. Experimental results indicate that our method enables more accurate predictions than all baseline models and by applying the convolutional processing to the GPM and FE variables notable improvement can be achieved in prediction accuracy.
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