Machine performance degradation assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability. They provide a potent tool for operators in decision-making by specifying the present machine state and estimating the remaining time. For this ultimate purpose, a threestage method for assessing the machine health degradation and forecasting the RUL is proposed.In the first stage, only the normal operating condition of machine is used to create identification model for recognizing the dynamic system behavior. Degradation index which is used for indicating the machine degradation is subsequently created based on the root mean square of residual errors. These errors are the difference between identification model and behavior of system. In the second stage, the Cox's proportional hazard model is generated to estimate the survival function of the system. In the last stage, support vector machine, which is one of the remarkable machine learning techniques, in association with time-series techniques is utilized to forecast the RUL. The data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine is used for validating the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed method could be used as a reliable tool to machine prognostics.
This paper presents an improvement of hybrid of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) for long-term machine state forecasting based on vibration data. In this study, vibration data is considered as a combination of two components which are deterministic data and error. The deterministic component may describe the degradation index of machine, whilst the error component can depict the appearance of uncertain parts. An improved hybrid forecasting model, namely NARX-ARMA model, is carried out to obtain the forecasting results in which NARX network model which is suitable for nonlinear issue is used to forecast the deterministic component and ARMA model are used to predict the error component due to appropriate capability in linear prediction. The final forecasting results are the sum of the results obtained from these single models. The performance of the NARX-ARMA model is then evaluated by using the data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine. In order to corroborate the advances of the proposed method, a comparative study of the forecasting results obtained from NARX-ARMA model and traditional models is also carried out. The comparative results show that NARX-ARMA model is outstanding and could be used as a potential tool to machine state forecasting.
Recently, prognostics is an active area and growth rapidly. In this paper, bearing prognostic has been studied in viewpoint of failure degradation as an object of prediction. This study proposes the application of relevance vector machine (RVM), logistic regression (LR) and ARMA/GARCH in order to assess the failure degradation of run-to-failure bearing simulated data. Failure degradation is calculated using LR and then regarded as target vectors of failure probability for RVM training. ARMA/GARCH based on multi-step-ahead prediction is employed for censored data. Furthermore, RVM is selected as intelligent system then trained by using run-to-failure bearing data and target vectors of failure probability estimated by LR. After training process, RVM is employed to predict failure probability of individual unit of bearing sample. The result shows the novelty of the proposed method which can be considered as machine degradation prognostic model.
This paper proposes a three-stage method involved system identification techniques, proportional hazard model, and support vector machine for assessing the machine health degradation and forecasting the machine remaining useful life (RUL). In the first stage, only the normal operating condition of machine is used to create identification model to mimic the dynamic system behaviour. The machine degradation is indicated by degradation index which is the root mean square of residual errors. These errors are the difference between identification model and behaviour of system. In the second stage, the Cox's proportional hazard model is generated to estimate the survival function of the system. Finally, support vector machine, one of the remarkable machine learning techniques, in association with direct prediction method of time-series techniques is utilized to forecast the RUL. The data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine are used for appraising the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method could be used as a potential tool to machine prognostics.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.