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China's energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China's energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China's energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives planning energy modeling tool, the future of China's energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China's total energy consumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA's estimations. In addition, the clean fuels (gas, nuclear and renewables) could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels (coal and oil) and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

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Abstract:Following the "going out" strategy, Chinese oil and gas companies have been widely involved in investing and operating business abroad to mitigate the increasing energy imbalance between supply and demand. Overseas oil investment, characterized by high risks and high returns, plays a significant role in ensuring energy security and strengthening global competitiveness in China. However, compared with overseas upstream projects, the downstream oil refining investment is still in the preliminary development stage, with limited experience for references, which further increases the risk surrounding such multibillion-dollar ventures. Hence, it is significant to assess the investment risks so as to help investors be fully aware of them and then make optimal investment decisions. To this end, this paper successfully identifies the main risk factors, including the local investment environment risk, technical risk, organization management risk, health, safety and environment (HSE) and social responsibility risk, and economic risk. Then, a qualitative-quantitative comprehensive risk evaluation method, combining the fuzzy mathematics and the grey system theory, is proposed and applied to analyze the investment risks of one Chinese overseas oil refining project as a case study. The assessment results are basically in accordance with the practical conditions, which validate the reliability and reasonability of the proposed risk assessment model in regard to the overseas oil refining project. The findings of this research provide the theoretical foundation and practical methodology of the risk analysis for future investment in oil refining areas.