The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m3 in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m3 in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m3 in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted.
This paper presents an ex-post calculation approach for the use-side estimation of wood fellings in Germany. Based on an existing approach for calculating wood removals, all roundwood using sectors and available data sources are to be identified. An intensive analysis and evaluation of the data scope and quality, as well as the subsequent identification of data gaps on the use side are essential parts of the approach. A complementary part of the study is the development of individual sectoral models to close the identified data gaps on the use side. The calculated data on wood removals are then used for the estimation of wood fellings, taking into account variables such as logging residues. The comparison of the use-side calculated data for fellings in this paper, with supply-based data from official statistics, shows that there was a difference of about 16.1 million m 3 in 2013. This tendency toward constant underestimation of fellings in the official statistics is known from various studies and can now be quantified for the complete period of investigation (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013). The results also allow for a more realistic view on a possible sustainable increase in wood harvests and on decision making in forest-based industries. Moreover, they allow for more accurate calculations of carbon sequestration in forests and harvested wood products.
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