In this communication, based upon the stochastic Gompertz law of population growth, we have reformulated the Leaky Competing Accumulator (LCA) model with multiple alternatives such that the positive-definiteness of evidence accumulation is automatically satisfied. By exploiting the Lie symmetry of the backward Kolmogorov equation (or Fokker–Planck equation) assoicated with the modified model and applying the Wei–Norman theorem, we have succeeded in deriving the N-dimensional joint probability density function (p.d.f.) and marginal p.d.f. for each alternative in closed form. With this joint p.d.f., a likelihood function can be constructed and thus model-fitting procedures become feasible. We have also demonstrated that the calibration of model parameters based upon the Monte Carlo simulated time series is indeed both efficient and accurate. Moreover, it should be noted that the proposed Lie-algebraic approach can also be applied to tackle the modified LCA model with time-varying parameters.
Asymmetric behaviour has been documented in unemployment rates which increase quickly in recessions but decline relatively slowly during expansions. To model such asymmetric dynamics, this paper provides a rigorous derivation of the asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental dynamics governing the unemployment rate based on a model of a simple labour supply and demand (fundamental) relationship, and shows that the fundamental dynamics is a unique choice following the Rayleigh process. By analogy, such a fundamental can be considered as a one-dimensional overdamped Brownian particle moving in a logarithmic–harmonic potential well, and a simple prototype of stochastic heat engines. The solution of the model equation illustrates that the unemployment rate rises faster with more flattened potential well of the fundamental, more ample labour supply, and less anchored expectation of the unemployment rate, suggesting asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in recessions and expansions. We perform explicit calibration of both the unemployment rate and fundamental dynamics, confirming the validity of our model for the fundamental dynamics.
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