There has been a dramatic increase in jellyfish biomass over the eastern Bering Sea shelf since the early 1990s, which was previously hypothesized to have been triggered by changing climate and ocean conditions. We examine the hypothesis that the presence of these large carnivores has affected fisheries resources, either through direct predation on larval stages, or through competition for zooplankton prey. In this paper, we explore the impact of this jellyfish increase on zooplankton and fish communities based on field data on the composition of the jellyfish community, and the abundance, size, stable isotopic signatures, and feeding habits of the principal scyphomedusae in the region. These data, together with those on zooplankton biomass, are used to estimate the ecosystem impacts of this increase. The center of jellyfish biomass has shifted from the SE Middle Shelf Domain in the early 1980s to the NW in the late 1990s. In recent years, the species composition of large medusae caught in trawls was dominated (> 80% by number and > 95% by weight) by the scyphozoan Chrysaora melanaster. Dense aggregations of this species occupied the water column in daytime between 10 and 40 m. Their food habits consisted mainly of pelagic crustaceans (euphausiids, copepods, amphipods), although other jellyfish and juvenile pollock were also consumed. Based on stable isotope ratios, the trophic level of this scyphozoan is equivalent to, or higher than, that of Age 0 pollock. Preliminary estimates showed that medusae have a moderate grazing impact on zooplankton in the area around the Pribilof Islands; C. melanaster was estimated on average to consume seasonally about one-third of the standing stock and 4.7% of the annual production of zooplankton in this region. Daily consumption of Age 0 pollock was estimated to be 2.8% of the standing stock around the Pribilof Islands during 1999. A hypothesis for the increase in jellyfishes observed in the eastern Bering Sea, based on release from competition from planktivorous forage fishes, is proposed.

We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969-87 and unfavorable during 1951-67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976-77 and 1985-88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969-70 and 1988-92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes.

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

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Decadal-to multi-decadal variations have been reported in many regional ecosystems in the North Pacific, resulting in an increasing demand to elucidate the link between longterm climatic forcing and marine ecosystems. We detected phenological and quantitative changes in the copepod community in response to the decadal climatic variation in the western subarctic North Pacific by analyzing the extensive zooplankton collection taken since the 1950s, the Odate Collection. Copepod species were classified into five seasonal groups depending on the timing of the annual peak in abundance. The abundance of the spring community gradually increased for the period 1960-2002. The spring-summer community also showed an increasing trend in May, but a decadal oscillation pattern of quasi-30-year cycles in July. Phenological changes coincided with the climate regime shift in the mid-1970s, indicated by the Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDO). After the regime shift, the timing of the peak abundance was delayed one month, from MarchApril to April-May, in the spring community, whereas it peaked earlier, from June-July to May-June, in the spring-summer community, resulting in an overlap of the high productivity period for the two communities in May. Wintertime cooling, followed by rapid summertime warming, was considered to be responsible for delayed initiation and early termination of the productive season after the mid-1970s. Another phenological shift, quite different from the previous decade, was observed in the mid-1990s, when warm winters followed by cool summers lengthened the productive season. The results suggest that climatic forcing with different decadal cycles may operate independently during winter-spring and spring-summer to create seasonal and interannual variations in hydrographic conditions; thus, combinations of these seasonal processes may determine the annual biological productivity.