We investigated the independent and incremental role of worsening arterial stiffness in new-onset heart failure (HF) in patients with preclinical HF. We retrospectively studied 456 consecutive asymptomatic patients with HF risk factors (hypertension, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation and ischemic heart disease) who underwent paired applanation tonometry examinations (median interval of 2.4 years) during 2006-2011. Brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured as a surrogate marker of arterial stiffness. Patients were followed up for admission for new-onset HF over a median duration of 4.9 years after the second examination. HF was observed in 30 patients (7%). The change in baPWV (∆baPWV) was significantly associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF, independent of and incremental to comorbidities, renal dysfunction, left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and baPWV at baseline. Even in patients with an LV ejection fraction of ⩾40%, ∆baPWV was significantly associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF after similar adjustments. When the patients were divided into groups based on this cutoff value of ⩾15% ∆baPWV and the generally accepted external cutoff value of ⩾1750 cm s for baseline baPWV, the Kaplan-Meier estimates of the time of hospitalization for new-onset HF showed that a higher rate of HF was associated with higher baPWV at baseline and higher ∆baPWV (P=0.00005). In asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors, the deterioration in arterial stiffness was associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF, independent of and incremental with the clinical LV function and increased stiffness parameters at baseline.
ObjectivesReadmission is a common and serious problem associated with heart failure (HF). Unfortunately, conventional risk models have limited predictive value for predicting readmission. The recipients of long-term care insurance (LTCI) are frail and have mental and physical impairments. We hypothesised that adjustment of the conventional risk score with an LTCI certificate enables a more accurate appreciation of readmission for HF.MethodsWe investigated 452 patients with HF who were followed up for 1 year to determine all-cause readmission. We obtained their clinical and socioeconomic data, including LTCI. The three clinical risk scores used in our evaluation were Keenan (2008), Krumholz (2000) and Charlson (1994). We used net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess the incremental benefit.ResultsPatients with LTCI were significantly older, and had a higher prevalence of cerebrovascular disease and dementia than those without LTCI. One-year all-cause readmission (n=193, 43%) was significantly associated with all risk scores, receiving LTCI and the category of LTCI. Receiving LTCI was associated with readmission independent of all risk scores (HR, 1.59 to 1.63; all p<0.01). Adding LTCI to all risk scores led to a significantly improved reclassification, which was observed in the subgroup of patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (≥50%) but not in the subgroup with reduced ejection fraction (<50%).ConclusionsPossession of an LTCI certificate was independently associated with 1-year all-cause readmission after adjusting for validated clinical risk scores in patients with HF. Adding LTCI status significantly improved the model performance for readmission risk, particularly in patients with HF and preserved ejection fraction.
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