Even though it is important in improving the quality of life to evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients with ulcerative colitis in comparison with the general population, it is unknown in detail. One hundred and seventeen cases followed-up for 10 years or more were evaluated to define the long-term prognosis of ulcerative colitis by the person-years method. The estimated number of death (E) was 14.5, and the observed number of death (0) was 20. The O/E ratio was 1.38 and confidence interval was 0.84-2.13, showing no significant difference between E and O. Evaluation of change in th O/E ratio at 5-year intervals revealed a decrease in both the males and females, with a significant difference observed between the ratios in 1960 and 1965 (each p<0.05). Generally, the death rate was significantly higher in the patients with ulcerative clitis than in the general population between 1953 and 1965 but did not significantly differ thereafter . On the other hand, the E from malignant tumors was 3.94, and the 0 was 4; the O/E ratio was 1 .02 and 95% confidence interval was 0.27-2.60, showing no significant difference between E and O . J Epidemiol, 2000 ; 10 : 48-54 ulcerative colitis, person-year method, Long-term prognosis
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