Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019. Objective The aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months. Methods The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. The spatial map is useful to identify the intensity of COVID-19 infections in the top 15 countries and the continents. The recent reported data for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the last 3 months was represented and compared between the top 15 infected countries. The advanced ARIMA model was used for predicting future data based on time series data. The ARIMA model provides a weight to past values and error values to correct the model prediction, so it is better than other basic regression and exponential methods. The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. Results The top 15 countries with a high number of confirmed cases were stratified to include the data in a mathematical model. The identified top 15 countries with cumulative cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 were compared. The United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, and Russia saw a relatively fast spread of the disease. There was a fast recovery ratio in China, Switzerland, Germany, Iran, and Brazil, and a slow recovery ratio in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia, and Italy. There was a high death rate ratio in Italy and the United Kingdom and a lower death rate ratio in Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States. The ARIMA model was used to predict estimated confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the top 15 countries from April 24 to July 7, 2020. Its value is represented with 95%, 80%, and 70% confidence interval values. The validation of the ARIMA model was done using the Akaike information criterion value; its values were about 20, 14, and 16 for cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19, respectively, which represents acceptable results. Conclusions The observed predicted values showed that the confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries will double in all the observed countries except China, Switzerland, and Germany. It was also observed that the death and recovery rates were rose faster when compared to confirmed cases over the next 2 months. The associated mortality rate will be much higher in the United States, Spain, and Italy followed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The forecast analysis of the COVID-19 dynamics showed a different angle for the whole world, and it looks scarier than imagined, but recovery numbers start looking promising by July 7, 2020.
We here predicted some trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) using the most advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Our analysis predicted very frightening outcomes, which defines to worsen the conditions in Iran, entire Europe, especially Italy, Spain, and France. While South Korea, after the initial blast, has come to stability, the same goes for the COVID-19 origin country China with more positive recovery cases and confirm to remain stable. The United States of America (USA) will come as a surprise and going to become the epicenter for new cases during the mid-April 2020. Based on our predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 started in China and devastated a vast majority of countries. In India, COVID-19 cases are steadily increasing since January 30, 2020, and the government-imposed lockdown across the country to curtail community transmission. COVID-19 forecasts have played an important role in capturing the probability of infection and the basic reproduction rate. In this study, we predicted some trajectories of trajectories associated with COVID-19 in the coming days in India using an Autoregression integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Richard's model. By the end of April 2020, the incidence of new cases is predicted to be 5200 (95% CI: 4650 to 6002) through the ARIMA model versus be 6378 (95% CI: 4904 to 7851) Richard model. We estimated that there would be a total of 197 (95% CI: 118 to 277) deaths and drop down in the recovery rates will reach around 501 (95% CI: 245 to 758) by the end of April 2020. These estimates can help to strengthen the implementation of strategies to increase the health system capacity and enactment of social distancing measures all over India.
Detailed surface images of the Moon and Mars reveal hundreds of cave-like openings. These cave-like openings are theorized to be remnants of lava-tubes and their interior maybe in pristine conditions. These locations may have well preserved geological records of the Moon and Mars, including evidence of past water flow and habitability. Exploration of these caves using wheeled rovers remains a daunting challenge. These caves are likely to have entrances with caved-in ceilings much like the lava-tubes of Arizona and New Mexico. Thus, the entrances are nearly impossible to traverse even for experienced human hikers. Our approach is to utilize the SphereX robot, a 3 kg, 30 cm diameter robot with computer hardware and sensors of a smartphone attached to rocket thrusters. Each SphereX robot can hop, roll or fly short distances in low gravity, airless or lowpressure environments. Several SphereX robots maybe deployed to minimize single-point failure and exploit cooperative behaviors to traverse the cave. There are some important challenges for navigation and path planning in these cave environments. Localization systems such as GPS are not available nor are they easy to install due to the signal blockage from the rocks. These caves are too dark and too large for conventional sensor such as cameras and miniature laser sensors to perform detailed mapping and navigation. In this paper, we identify new techniques to map these caves by performing localized, cooperative mapping and navigation. In our approach, a team of SphereX robots much like a team of cave explorer will adopt specialized roles to perform navigation. For a minimal science mission, these robots need to obtain camera images and basic maps of the cave interior to be transmitted back to a lander or rover situated outside the cave. The teams of SphereX robots form a bucket brigade and partition the currently accessible volume of the cave. Then the teams of robots attempt to expand their reach deeper into the cave and sense their progress. Imaging the cave interior is expensive and require use of high-power strobe lights. The images would be compiled into a 3D point cloud and meshed by the lander or transmitted to ground. Using this conservative approach, we ensure the robots are always within communication reach of a lander/rover outside the cave. Once large segments of the cave are mapped, the rovers may lay down a network of mirrors to beam sunlight and laser light from a base station at the cave entrance to the far reaches of the cave. These mirrors also help the robots identify a pathway back to the cave entrance. Efforts are underway to perform field experiments to validate the feasibility our proposed approach to cave exploration.
The next frontier in solar system exploration will be missions targeting extreme and rugged environments such as caves, canyons, cliffs and crater rims of the Moon, Mars and icy moons. These environments are time capsules into early formation of the solar system and will provide vital clues of how our early solar system gave way to the current planets and moons. These sites will also provide vital clues to the past and present habitability of these environments. Current landers and rovers are unable to access these areas of high interest due to limitations in precision landing techniques, need for large and sophisticated science instruments and a mission assurance and operations culture where risks are minimized at all costs. Our past work has shown the advantages of using multiple spherical hopping robots called SphereX for exploring these extreme environments. Our previous work was based on performing exploration with a human-designed baseline design of a SphereX robot. However, the design of SphereX is a complex task that involves a large number of design variables and multiple engineering disciplines. In this work we propose to use Automated Multidisciplinary Design and Control Optimization (AMDCO) techniques to find near optimal design solutions in terms of mass, volume, power, and control for SphereX for different mission scenarios. The implementation of AMDCO for SphereX design is a complex process because of complexity of modelling and implementation, discontinuities in the design space, and wide range of time scales and exploration objectives. Moreover, the design of SphereX will depend on target environment (e.g. gravity, temperature, radiation and surface properties), coordination complexity with increased number of robots, expected distance of exploration and expected mission time length. We address these issues by using machine learning in the form of Genetic Algorithms integrated with gradient-based optimization techniques to search through the design space and find pareto optimal solutions for a given mission task. Using this technology, it is now possible to perform end to end automated preliminary design of planetary robots for surface exploration.
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