Indonesia is a largest producer of Crude Palm Oil in the world, with increasing production and export from time to time. Since Indonesia now adopts a floating exchange rate regime, the export of such commodity may influence the real exchange rate, and this is the aim of this paper. By applying simultaneous equation model on data from 1984 to 2011, we conclude that the increase in CPO price will lead to an appreciation of Rupiah’s real exchange rate. As a major producer of CPO, the authority should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil to help controlling the stability of Rupiah’s rate. Keywords: CPO, simultaneous equation, real exchange rate.JEL Classification: E2
Indonesia is a biggest producer of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the world. Production and export volumes continued to increase from year to year. CPO products have an important role in the Indonesian economy, one of them as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner in the plantation sector. Given that Indonesia has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 1978, the export of commodities such as palm oil will have an important influence on the real exchange rate. Therefore, this study aimed to see how much the world price of CPO influence the development of the real exchange rate of rupiah. The analytical method used is a simultaneous equation model using time series data from 1984 to 2011. The results showed that the increase in CPO price will lead to real exchange rate rupiah appreciated. Therefore, Indonesia as a major producer of CPO should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil in order to control the stability of the real exchange rate of the rupiah. Keywords : world CPO price, simultaneous equation model, the real exchange rate of rupiah.JEL Classification: E2
This study aims to analyze the effectS of the COVID-19 pandemic, labor, domestic direct investment (DDI), AND foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Indonesia. The type of data used in this study is panel data, which is a combination of cross-section and THE time series data (Silvia, 2020). The cross-section data involves 34 provinces and time-series data covers the period from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2021. The result found out that the regression coefficient of labor has a positive and significant effect at the 5 percent level, which means that if the number of workers increases by 1 percent, economic growth will increase by 0.03 percent. Furthermore, the FDI variable also has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia. We can see in table 3.2 that the FDI variable is significant at the 5 percent level with a regression coefficient of 0.012, this means that an increase in FDI by 1 percent will accelerate economic growth by 0.012 percent. From the results of data processing obtained by the author, it can be seen that the DDI variable has a positive but not significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia, this can be seen from the p-value which is greater than 5 percent. The regression coefficient of -0.001 proves that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact on economic growth in Indonesia. When the COVID-19 pandemic reached the territory of Indonesia, economic growth slowed by 0.001 percent.
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