The transfer of organic carbon from the upper to the deep ocean by particulate export flux is the starting point for the long term storage of photosynthetically-fixed carbon. This "biological carbon pump" is a critical component of the global carbon cycle, reducing atmospheric CO2 levels by ~ 200 ppm relative to a world without export flux. This carbon flux also fuels the productivity of the mesopelagic zone, including significant fisheries. Here we show that, despite its importance for understanding future ocean carbon cycling, that Earth System Models disagree on the projected response of the global export flux to climate change, with estimates ranging from -41% to +1.8%. Fundamental constraints to understanding export flux arise because a myriad of interconnected processes make the biological carbon pump challenging to both observe and model. Our synthesis prioritises the processes likely to be most important to include in modern-day estimates (particle fragmentation and zooplankton vertical migration) and future projections (phytoplankton and particle size spectra, and temperature-dependent remineralization) of export. We also identify the observations required to achieve more robust characterisation, and hence improved model parameterization, of export flux, and thus reduce uncertainties in current and future estimates in the overall cycling of carbon in the ocean. Main text:Biological activity in the upper ocean takes up 50-60 GtC from the atmosphere annually, of which ~ 10% sinks out of the surface ocean 1 . This 'exported' carbon fuels the biological carbon pump and hence plays a central role in storing carbon in the ocean on climatically-relevant timescales 2 . Because of the complexity of the

It has become clear that anthropogenic carbon invasion into the surface ocean drives changes in the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) and pH. However, it is not yet known whether the resulting sea‐air CO2 fluxes are symmetric in their seasonal expression. Here we consider a novel application of observational constraints and modeling inferences to test the hypothesis that changes in the ocean's Revelle factor facilitate a seasonally asymmetric response in pCO2 and the sea‐air CO2 flux. We use an analytical framework that builds on observed sea surface pCO2 variability for the modern era and incorporates transient dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations from an Earth system model. Our findings reveal asymmetric amplification of pCO2 and pH seasonal cycles by a factor of two (or more) above preindustrial levels under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. These changes are significantly larger than observed modes of interannual variability and are relevant to climate feedbacks associated with Revelle factor perturbations. Notably, this response occurs in the absence of changes to the seasonal cycle amplitudes of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, salinity, and temperature, indicating that significant alteration of surface pCO2 can occur without modifying the physical or biological ocean state. This result challenges the historical paradigm that if the same amount of carbon and nutrients is entrained and subsequently exported, there is no impact on anthropogenic carbon uptake. Anticipation of seasonal asymmetries in the sea surface pCO2 and CO2 flux response to ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century may have important implications for carbon cycle feedbacks.

We measured triple oxygen isotopes and oxygen/argon dissolved gas ratios as nonincubation-based geochemical tracers of gross oxygen production (GOP) and net community production (NCP) on 16 container ship transects across the North Pacific from 2008 to 2012. We estimate rates and efficiency of biological carbon export throughout the full annual cycle across the North Pacific basin (35°N-50°N, 142°E-125°W) by constructing mixed layer budgets that account for physical and biological influences on these tracers. During the productive season from spring to fall, GOP and NCP are highest in the Kuroshio region west of 170°E and decrease eastward across the basin. However, deep winter mixed layers (>200 m) west of 160°W ventilatẽ 40-90% of this seasonally exported carbon, while only~10% of seasonally exported carbon east of 160°W is ventilated in winter where mixed layers are <120 m. As a result, despite higher annual GOP in the west than the east, the annual carbon export (sequestration) rate and efficiency decrease westward across the basin from export of 2.3 ± 0.3 mol C m À2 yr À1 east of 160°W to 0.5 ± 0.7 mol C m À2 yr À1 west of 170°E. Existing productivity rate estimates from time series stations are consistent with our regional productivity rate estimates in the eastern but not western North Pacific. These results highlight the need to estimate productivity rates over broad spatial areas and throughout the full annual cycle including during winter ventilation in order to accurately estimate the rate and efficiency of carbon sequestration via the ocean's biological pump.

Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean's buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short‐term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 4 data to develop 12 month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High‐latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.