Purpose Active surveillance represents a strategy to address the overtreatment of prostate cancer, yet uncertainty regarding individual patient outcomes remains a concern. We evaluated outcomes in a prospective multi-center study of active surveillance. Methods We studied 905 men in the prospective Canary Prostate cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) enrolled between 2008 to 2013. We collected clinical data at study entry and at pre-specified intervals and determined associations with adverse reclassification defined as increased Gleason grade or greater cancer volume on follow-up biopsy. We also evaluated the relationships of clinical parameters with pathology findings in participants who underwent surgery after a period of active surveillance. Results During a median follow-up of 28 months, 24% of participants experienced adverse reclassification, of whom 53% underwent treatment while 31% continued active surveillance. Overall, 19% of participants received treatment, 68% with adverse reclassification while 32% opted for treatment without disease reclassification. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling, percent of biopsy cores with cancer, BMI, and PSA density were associated with adverse reclassification (P = 0.01, 0.04, 0.04). Of 103 participants subsequently treated by radical prostatectomy, 34% had adverse pathology, defined as primary pattern 4–5 or non-organ confined disease, including two with positive lymph nodes, with no significant relationship between risk category at diagnosis and findings at surgery (P = 0.76). Conclusion Most men remain on active surveillance at five years without adverse reclassification or adverse pathology at surgery. However, clinical factors had only modest association with disease reclassification, supporting the need for approaches that improve prediction of this outcome.
Background Expanding interest in and use of active surveillance for early state prostate cancer has increased need for prognostic biomarkers. Using a multi-institutional tissue microarray resource including over 1000 radical prostatectomy samples, we sought to correlate Ki67 expression captured by an automated image analysis system with clinico-pathologic features and validate its utility as a clinical grade test in predicting cancer-specific outcomes. Methods After immunostaining, the Ki67 proliferation index (PI) of tumor areas of each core (3 cancer cores/case) was analyzed using a nuclear quantification algorithm (Aperio). We assessed whether Ki67 PI was associated with clinico-pathologic factors and recurrence free survival including biochemical recurrence, metastasis or PC death (7-year median follow-up). Results In 1004 PCs (~4,000 tissue cores) Ki67 PI showed significantly higher inter-tumor (0.68) than intra-tumor variation (0.39). Ki67 PI was associated with stage (p<0.0001), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI, p=0.02), extracapsular extension (ECE, p<0.0001) and Gleason Score (GS, p<0.0001). Ki67 PI as a continuous variable significantly correlated with recurrence free, overall and disease-specific survival by multivariable Cox proportional hazard model (HR=1.04–1.1, p=0.02–0.0008). High Ki67 score (defined as ≥5%) was significantly associated with worse recurrence free survival (HR=1.47, p=0.0007) and worse overall survival (HR=2.03, p=0.03). Conclusion In localized PC treated by radical prostatectomy, higher Ki67 PI assessed using a clinical grade automated algorithm is strongly associated with a higher GS, stage, SVI and ECE, and greater probability of recurrence.
PURPOSE The 17-gene Onco type DX Genomic Prostate Score (GPS) test predicts adverse pathology (AP) in patients with low-risk prostate cancer treated with immediate surgery. We evaluated the GPS test as a predictor of outcomes in a multicenter active surveillance cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS Diagnostic biopsy tissue was obtained from men enrolled at 8 sites in the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study. The primary endpoint was AP (Gleason Grade Group [GG] ≥ 3, ≥ pT3a) in men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) after initial surveillance. Multivariable regression models for interval-censored data were used to evaluate the association between AP and GPS. Inverse probability of censoring weighting was applied to adjust for informative censoring. Predictiveness curves were used to evaluate how models stratified risk of AP. Association between GPS and time to upgrade on surveillance biopsy was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS GPS results were obtained for 432 men (median follow-up, 4.6 years); 101 underwent RP after a median 2.1 years of surveillance, and 52 had AP. A total of 167 men (39%) upgraded at a subsequent biopsy. GPS was significantly associated with AP when adjusted for diagnostic GG (hazards ratio [HR]/5 GPS units, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.44; P = .030), but not when also adjusted for prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD; HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 0.99 to 4.19; P = .066). Models containing PSAD and GG, or PSAD, GG, and GPS may stratify risk better than a model with GPS and GG. No association was observed between GPS and subsequent biopsy upgrade ( P = .48). CONCLUSION In our study, the independent association of GPS with AP after initial active surveillance was not statistically significant, and there was no association with upgrading in surveillance biopsy. Adding GPS to a model containing PSAD and diagnostic GG did not significantly improve stratification of risk for AP over the clinical variables alone.
Histologic grading remains the gold standard for prognosis in prostate cancer, and assessment of Gleason score plays a critical role in active surveillance management. We sought to optimize the prognostic stratification of grading and developed a method of recording and studying individual architectural patterns by light microscopic evaluation that is independent of standard Gleason grade. Some of the evaluated patterns are not assessed by current Gleason grading (eg, reactive stromal response). Individual histologic patterns were correlated with recurrence-free survival in a retrospective postradical prostatectomy cohort of 1275 patients represented by the highest-grade foci of carcinoma in tissue microarrays. In univariable analysis, fibromucinous rupture with varied epithelial complexity had a significantly lower relative risk of recurrence-free survival in cases graded as 3+4=7. Cases having focal "poorly formed glands," which could be designated as pattern 3+4=7, had lower risk than cribriform patterns with either small cribriform glands or expansile cribriform growth. In separate multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses of both Gleason score 3+3=6 and 3+4=7 carcinomas, reactive stromal patterns were associated with worse recurrence-free survival. Decision tree models demonstrate potential regrouping of architectural patterns into categories with similar risk. In summary, we argue that Gleason score assignment by current consensus guidelines are not entirely optimized for clinical use, including active surveillance. Our data suggest that focal poorly formed gland and cribriform patterns, currently classified as Gleason pattern 4, should be in separate prognostic groups, as the latter is associated with worse outcome. Patterns with extravasated mucin are likely overgraded in a subset of cases with more complex epithelial bridges, whereas stromogenic cancers have a worse outcome than conveyed by Gleason grade alone. These findings serve as a foundation to facilitate optimization of histologic grading and strongly support incorporating reactive stroma into routine assessment.
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