No abstract

The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, having profound impacts on many weather and climate phenomena across the tropics and extratropics. Previous studies using a limited number of models have suggested complex changes in MJO activity in a warmer climate. While most studies have argued that MJO precipitation amplitude will increase in a future warmer climate, others note that this is not necessarily the case for MJO wind variability. This distinction is important since MJO wind fluctuations are responsible for producing remote impacts on extreme weather through teleconnections. In this study, we examine projected changes of MJO precipitation and wind variance at the end of the 21st century in Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 using the multimodel Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 data set. Under global warming, most models show an increase in MJO band precipitation variance, while wind variability decreases. The discrepancy between MJO precipitation and wind variance changes under global warming is shown to be due to increases in tropical static stability in a warmer climate. The multimodel mean shows a 20% increase in both the 500‐hPa vertical tropical dry static energy gradient and the ratio of intraseasonal precipitation to 500 hPa omega fluctuations, consistent with scaling by weak temperature gradient theory. These results imply that tropical static stability increases may weaken the MJO's ability to influence extreme events in future warmer climate by weakening wind teleconnections, even though MJO precipitation amplitude may increase.

Mechanisms that cause changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) precipitation amplitude under global warming are examined in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under global warming in representative concentration pathway 8.5, MJO precipitation intensifies in most models relative to current climate while MJO wind circulations increase at a slower rate or weaken. Changes in MJO precipitation intensity are partially controlled by changes in moisture profiles and static stability. The vertical moisture gradient increases in the lower half of the troposphere in response to the surface warming, while the vertical static stability gradient increases due to preferential warming in the upper troposphere. A nondimensional quantity called α has been defined that gives the efficiency of vertical advective moistening associated with diabatic processes in the free troposphere, and has been hypothesized by previous studies to regulate MJO amplitude. The term α is proportional to the vertical moisture gradient and inversely proportional to static stability. Under global warming, the increased vertical moisture gradient makes α larger in models, despite increased static stability. Although α increases in all models, MJO precipitation amplitude decreases in some models, contrary to expectations. It is demonstrated that in these models more top-heavy MJO diabatic heating with warming overwhelms the effect of increased α to make vertical moisture advection less efficient.

Recent studies have shown that Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) precipitation anomaly amplitude tends to increase while associated circulations weaken at the end of 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Transient changes of MJO characteristics earlier in the 21st century have received less attention. In this study, changes of MJO precipitation and circulation amplitude during these interim time periods under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 are examined in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Multimodel mean changes in MJO precipitation and circulation amplitude are not individually detectable in the early and middle 21st century relative to the historical period (1986–2005). However, robust multimodel mean decreases in the ratio of MJO wind to precipitation anomalies occur even early in the 21st century. This decreased ratio is explained by increasingly large tropical static stability as the climate warms, which under weak temperature gradient balance mandates that a diabatic heating anomaly is balanced by an increasingly weaker circulation anomaly. These results suggest the robustness of weak temperature gradient theory for explaining MJO dynamics, not only in an equilibrium climate but also in the transient response.

Interactions between cumulus convection and its large-scale environment have been recognized as crucial to the understanding of tropical climate and its variability. In this study, the moist static energy (MSE) budget is employed to investigate the potential impact of the vertical structure of large-scale vertical motion in tropical climate based on results from both reanalysis data and model simulation. Two domains are selected over the western and eastern Pacific with vertical motion profiles that are dominated by top-heavy and bottom-heavy structures, respectively. The bottom-heavy structure is climatologically associated with more shallow convection, while the top-heavy structure is related to more deep convection. The column-integrated vertical MSE advection of top-heavy vertical motion is positive, while that of bottom-heavy vertical motion tends to be negative. Controlling factors responsible for the above vertical MSE advection contrast are discussed based on a simple decomposition of the MSE budget equation. It was found that the sign of vertical MSE advection is determined mainly by the vertical moisture transport, the magnitude of which is very sensitive to the structure of vertical motion. A top-heavy (bottom heavy) structure of vertical motion favors an export (import) of MSE and a positive (negative) value of the vertical MSE advection.