This paper examines the growth experience of Indonesia in the years before and after the Asian financial crisis. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between economic growth and petroleum sector"s total factor productivity (TFP). It finds the possibility that post-crisis Indonesian economic growth has "recoupled" with petroleum sector"s TFP -fluctuations in petroleum TFP is directly correlated with fluctuations in economic growth. Further, although keeping Indonesia"s petroleum sector open to fair competition should be the prime policy, the fact regarding resource nationalism might need to be taken into account in designing the policy to develop the productivity of Indonesia"s petroleum sector. AbstrakMakalah ini membahas pengalaman pertumbuhan Indonesia pada tahun-tahun sebelum dan setelah krisis keuangan Asia. Perhatian khusus diberikan untuk hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan total factor productivy (TFP) sektor minyak bumi. Hasil penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa pasca krisis keuangan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia adalah 'ditambah' dengan TFP sektor minyak bumi. Fluktuasi TFP minyak bumi berhubungan langsung dengan fluktuasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selanjutnya, meskipun kebijakan menjaga sektor minyak bumi Indonesia ini terbuka untuk persaingan yang sehat tetap harus dijadikan kebijakan utama, nasionalisme sumber daya mungkin perlu diperhitungkan dalam merancang kebijakan untuk mengembangkan produktivitas sektor minyak bumi di Indonesia.

Does the pandemic of COVID-19 have persistent or transitory effects on Indonesia’s economy and fiscal capacity? This article addresses empirical answer to this question by conducting unit root tests on time series data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), income tax revenue, Value-Added Tax (VAT) revenue, the ratio of income tax revenue to GDP, and the ratio of VAT revenue to GDP covering the period from 1984 to 2019. The results find the presence of unit root process in these time series which imply that the shock from the pandemic may persistently lower the path of economic output and fiscal capacity of Indonesia.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of

This paper investigates how changes in the tax structure may affect Indonesia’s long-run economic growth.* The growth effects of the mix of income taxes and consumption taxes are examined using a set of panel growth regressions, which account for indicators of the tax structure, as well as both the accumulation of physical capital and human capital. The results suggest that income taxes may not exert a statistically significant impact on long-run growth, while consumption taxes may have a positive and statistically significant impact. These results, however, are not robust to changes in the regression’s specifications. Hence, although previous studies predict that the mix of direct and indirect taxes may be an important determinant of long-run growth, this paper provides evidence that, in practice, this mix is unlikely to have an impact on the long-run economic growth of Indonesia. It is therefore suggested that policy makers could instead focus their attentions on directing tax reform in Indonesia toward improving tax administration and the equity of the tax system.

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