A debate in Marxist literature concerns the methodology for measuring the profit rate. This paper investigates this question computing the rate of profit at historical cost, current cost, constant prices, and constant GDP price for Brazil in the 1955–2008 period. Like many developing countries, Brazil experienced medium to high inflation during this period. Inflation determined the trend and cyclical movements of the profit rate at historical cost. It increased in years of rising, and declined in years of falling, inflation. The profit rate at historical cost was at odds with Brazilian economic history. The profit rate at current costs remained unaffected by the inflation rate, and its movements correspond to the historical phases of the Brazilian economy. The same is true for the profit rate at constant prices and at constant GDP price. However, the profit rate at constant prices does not account for changes in relative prices, while the profit rate at constant GDP price is computed using a weighted average of the current and past relative prices.
JEL Classification: E01, B51
This article tests whether the profit share of gdp and capacity utilization affect capital accumulation in Brazil in the period 1950-2008 (in the sense of Granger causality). The methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to verify the Granger non-causality hypothesis. The results show that capacity utilization "Granger-causes" capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy and, also that the profit share of gdp does not "Granger-cause" the national investment-capital ratio. This corroborates the Kaleckian proposal based on the fundamental role of the accelerator, and suggests that the Brazilian economy can grow with either a concentration or a de-concentration of income, provided a suitable institutional arrangement is in place.
This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Brazilian economy. We present a two-sector, open-economy, Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium model that distinguishes among three economic classes and assumes no financial sector. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We compare the medium-run effects of five experiments: an income transfer towards formal workers, a transfer to informal labour, an investment shock, an exchange rate depreciation, and a policy mix that combines (exchange rate) depreciation with income transfer towards modern (sector) workers. The policy measures reinforce each other in terms of their potential to enhance growth. Our findings underscore the importance of redistributive policies to foster economic expansion.
This article presents a classical-Marxian model of catching up wherein the leader country employs a technique with higher labor productivity and lower capital productivity than the follower’s technique. The follower’s higher profit rate allows for faster capital accumulation than the leader’s. During the catching up phase, labor productivity rises while capital productivity and profit rate decline in the follower country. In addition, we discuss some stylized facts of catching up in China, Japan, and India in relation to the United States between 1980 and 2014. Catching up occurred when capital accumulation was higher in the followers. However, a high capital accumulation in the follower country can reduce capital productivity and profit rate to a level lower than the leader’s, putting the process at risk.
Resumo: A crise financeira do Rio Grande do Sul impõe grandes desafios ao governo a fim de mitigar tal situação. Corte de gastos e aumento de impostos em geral estão na agenda do governo sem mensurar adequadamente o impacto dessas medidas na economia. O objetivo do artigo é justamente preencher essa lacuna, verificando a estrutura básica da economia gaúcha em 2008, bem como estimando o impacto do aumento dos impostos sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviços (ICMS) na demanda final e na atividade econômica gaúcha. Para tal, este artigo emprega a Matriz de Insumo-Produto de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar o impacto do aumento dos impostos na economia. Os resultados mostram um impacto negativo do aumento dos impostos na economia gaúcha, restringindo as possibilidades de desenvolvimento regional.
Palavras-chave:Análise de insumo-produto qualitativa; Desenvolvimento Econômi-co.Classificação JEL: O1, C1, D57.
Estimating the impacts of ICMS increases in the Gaúcha economy: An Input-output AnalysisAbstract: The financial crisis of Rio Grande do Sul imposes great challenges to the state in order to mitigate the situation. Cutting spending and general tax increases are on the government agenda without access the impact of these measures on the economy. The aim of this paper is precisely to fill this gap by checking the basic structure of the state economy in 2008, as well as estimating the impact of the tax increases in final demand and the state's economic activity. To that end, this paper uses the Input-Output Matrix for 2008 to investigate the impact of higher taxes on the economy. The results show a negative impact of higher taxes on the state's economy, restricting the regional development possibilities.
<p>This paper investigates the causes of the Brazilian recession that began in 2014. If, on the one hand, the conventional diagnosis attributes the crisis to a lack of control of public finances, other interpretations emphasize external shocks and excessive indebtedness of the private sector. The alternative hypothesis is that the deterioration of public accounts is a consequence of the crisis and not its cause. The methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to verify the hypothesis of non-causality of Granger between the time series of the balances of the private sector, public sector and current account, from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB, 2017) for the 2002-2017 period. The results suggest that the balances of the external and private sectors cause in the Granger sense the balance (result) of the public sector.</p>
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