There is still a controversy as to the effect of spatial organization on CO2 emissions. This paper contributes to this debate by investigating the potentials offered by infrastructure measures favoring lower mobility in the transition to a low-carbon economy. This is done by embarking a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation in an energyeconomy-environment (E3) model. In addition to the standard representation of transport technologies, this framework considers explicitly the "behavioural" determinants of mobility that drive the demand for transport but are often disregarded in mitigation assessments: constrained mobility needs (essentially commuting) imposed by the spatial organization of residence and production, modal choices triggered by installed infrastructure and the freight transport intensity of production processes. This study demonstrates that the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity significantly modifies the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and reduces the carbon tax levels necessary to reach a given climate target relatively to a "carbon price only" policy. This result is robust to a wide range of assumptions about exogenous parameters.
International audienceDespite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers
International audienceThis paper analyzes the socio-economic effects of energy sustainability challenges raised by oil depletion and climate change at the European and global level. We assess macroeconomic impacts at different time horizons over 2010-2100 and under different visions of the future of globalization . Fragmented capital markets affect the pace and direction of change and induce additional economic losses in the long term. Regionalized good markets have a positive effect in the long term since less intense international trade moderates the effects of fossil fuel constraints. A sustainable energy future will require implementing policies and measures that are able to (i) provide correct incentives for long-term investments by resorting to other signals than current market prices, (ii) incorporate sectoral measures that act complementarily to pricing schemes measures for sectors confronted with biased agents’ behaviors or strong inertias, (iii) foster globalization patterns that are consistent with energy sustainability objectives. The challenge consists in articulating the objectives and the instruments of these different policy and measures triggering the transition towards sustainable future
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