Summary1. Changes in livestock grazing regimes are among the most important drivers of species loss and decrease in functional diversity world-wide. However, taxonomic and functional diversities (TD and FD) can respond differently to changes in grazing regime or productivity. 2. We surveyed plant communities from 67 sites under different grazing regimes (from heavy grazing to grazing abandonment) in wet and dry habitats, in both wet and dry years. We tested the influence of grazing intensity, habitat type and rainfall on TD, FD and the relationship between them. We also partitioned diversity to examine the effects of grazing on TD and FD across scales (within communities, within grazing levels and between grazing levels). 3. The effect of grazing within and across communities was modulated by water availability, with grazing showing the strongest effects in dry habitats. The relationship between FD and TD varied between habitat types and years and revealed high functional similarity between species (i.e. redundancy) in dry habitats. TD was reduced in the driest conditions across all the observation levels, contrasting with the high temporal stability of FD, suggesting that FD was decoupled from TD, especially in dry habitats. However, despite the high temporal and spatial stability of FD, results show that under severely limited water availability, high grazing pressure can reduce FD, revealing a convergence in traits under the combined effect of grazing and drought conditions. 4. Synthesis and applications. Results highlight the dependence of functional diversity on the combined effect of water availability and grazing regime. Under severely limited water availability, grazing intensification reduced the functional diversity of these grasslands. Because of the foreseeable reduction in water availability in Mediterranean environments, we recommend the adoption of flexible grazing management schemes that take species and functional diversities into account simultaneously and adapt the level of grazing pressure to water availability.

Question: Will the predicted climate changes affect species distribution in the Iberian Peninsula? Location: Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). Methods: We modelled current and future tree distributions as a function of climate, using a computational framework that made use of one machine learning technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm. This algorithm provided good predictions of the current distribution of each species, as shown by the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Species turnover, richness and the change in distributions over time to 2080 under four Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios were calculated using the species map outputs. Results and Conclusions: The results show a notable reduction in the potential distribution of the studied species under all the IPCC scenarios, particularly so for mountain conifer species such as Pinus sylvestris, P. uncinata and Abies alba. Temperate species, especially Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, were also predicted to suffer a reduction in their range; also sub‐mediterranean species, especially Q. pyrenaica, were predicted to undergo notable decline. In contrast, typically Mediterranean species appeared to be generally more capable of migration, and are therefore likely to be less affected.

Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low-resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient.Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east).Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041-70 and 2071-2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. ResultsThe models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold-adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80-99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for coldwet-optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad-leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%.Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold-adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid-elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold-adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.

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This paper reports a bioclimatic envelope model study of the potential distribution of 19 tree species in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr BP) and the Mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP). Current patterns of tree species richness and distributions are believed to have been strongly influenced by the climate during these periods. The modelling employed novel machine learning techniques, and its accuracy was evaluated using a threshold-independent method. Two atmospheric general circulation models, UGAMP and ECHAM3 (generated by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP), were used to provide climate scenarios under which the distributions of the 19 tree species were modelled. The results obtained for these scenarios were assessed by agreement measure analysis; they differed significantly for the LGM, but were more similar for the Mid-Holocene. The results for the LGM support the inferred importance of pines in the Iberian Peninsula at this time, and the presence of evergreen Quercus in the south. Important differences in the altitude at which the modelled species grew were also predicted. During the LGM, some normally higher mountain species potentially became reestablished in the foothills of the Pyrenees. The warm Mid-Holocene climate is clearly reflected in the predicted expansion of broad-leaved forests during this period, including the colonization of the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula by evergreen Quercus species.

Chorological information concerning 182 taxa of monocotyledons endemic to the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands was compiled and related to the 100×100 km, 50×50 km and 10×10 km UTM grids. Distributions were analysed using multivariate methods (two‐way indicator species analysis and detrended correspondence analysis) for each scale. Comparison of results allows recognition of several floristic elements and sectors (i.e. Balearic, Murcian‐Almerian, south western) common to all three scales, whereas other regions are assigned to different sectors depending on the grid size considered. As a consequence of the increase in detail, characteristics such as number of sectors, the outline of boundaries and continuity or fragmentation of the areas also change. These factors are discussed.

This paper reports a bioclimatic envelope model study of the potential distribution of 19 tree species in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr BP) and the Mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP). Current patterns of tree species richness and distributions are believed to have been strongly influenced by the climate during these periods. The modelling employed novel machine learning techniques, and its accuracy was evaluated using a threshold-independent method. Two atmospheric general circulation models, UGAMP and ECHAM3 (generated by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP), were used to provide climate scenarios under which the distributions of the 19 tree species were modelled. The results obtained for these scenarios were assessed by agreement measure analysis; they differed significantly for the LGM, but were more similar for the Mid-Holocene. The results for the LGM support the inferred importance of pines in the Iberian Peninsula at this time, and the presence of evergreen Quercus in the south. Important differences in the altitude at which the modelled species grew were also predicted. During the LGM, some normally higher mountain species potentially became reestablished in the foothills of the Pyrenees. The warm Mid-Holocene climate is clearly reflected in the predicted expansion of broad-leaved forests during this period, including the colonization of the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula by evergreen Quercus species.

Aim  To assess the importance of climate and human pressure as factors limiting the past, present and future distribution of Prunus lusitanica L. (the Portuguese laurel), a relict of Europe’s ancient subtropical laurel‐forest flora. Location  The Iberian Peninsula. Methods  A census was taken of the current populations of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula and the threats they face. The potential distribution of the species was modelled under current climatic conditions and under simulations of the climate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid‐Holocene and the year 2080. Results  The present total population of 31,000 individuals is largely distributed as small, fragmented subpopulations, often threatened by agriculture or forestry. The species’ current range is much smaller than its potentially suitable range. During the LGM, P. lusitanica would have been constrained to a limited number of sites along the Atlantic coast. In the mid‐Holocene, its potential range was much wider than during the LGM and similar to that of the present day. Under the 2080 climate scenario its potential range is reduced by almost 40% compared to that of the present. This reduction includes the loss of territories currently home to three‐quarters of its Iberian population. Main conclusions  Drastic climatic changes and the existence of refugia are usually invoked to explain the rarity and fragmented distribution – yet persistence – of a subtropical flora in southern Europe. The availability of climatically suitable habitats is, however, not necessarily the main factor limiting its distribution. Human impact would appear to have been – and continues to be – of fundamental importance in the current population sizes and potential range of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula.