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The demography of armed conflict is an emerging field among demographers and peace researchers alike. The articles in this special issue treat demography as both a cause and a consequence of armed conflict, and they carry important policy implications. A study of German-allied countries during World War II addresses the role of refugees and territorial loss in paving the way for genocide. Other articles focusing on the demographic causes of conflict discuss highly contentious issues of whether economic and social inequality, high population pressure on natural resources, and youth bulges and limited migration opportunities can lead to different forms of armed conflict and state failure. The articles on demographic responses to armed conflict analyze the destructiveness of pre-industrial warfare, differences in short- and long-term mortality trends after armed conflict, and migratory responses in war. Another set of articles on demographic responses to war is published simultaneously in the European Journal of Population.

Organisations that develop demographic projections usually propose several variants with different demographic assumptions. Existing criteria for selecting a preferred projection are mostly based on retrospective comparisons with observations, and a prospective approach is needed. In this work, we use the meanvariance scaling (spatial variance function) of human population densities to select among alternative demographic projections. We test against observed and projected Norwegian county population density using two spatial variance functions, Taylor's law (TL) and its quadratic generalisation, and compare each function's parameters between the historical data and six demographic projections, at two different time scales (long term: 1978-2010 vs. 2011-2040; and short term: 2006-2010 vs. 2011-2015). We find that short-term projections selected by TL agree more accurately than the other projections with the recent county density data and reflect the current high rate of international migration to and from Norway. The variance Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

<p>The life expectancy has increased rapidly in Norway in recent decades, with about ¼ year per year. The increase has been particularly fast for men, following a temporary decline in the 1950s and 1960s. Statistics Norway’s mortality projections using the Lee-Carter method indicate further improvements in this century – about 10 years higher life expectancy at birth. This implies significant mortality declines for older persons as the mortality is now small for young people. With no deaths below age 50 the life expectancy would be only 1-2 years higher.</p><p>Population projections are for several reasons important for studying population ageing, including to have knowledge about the future age structure, and to estimate the effects of possible policy changes. In addition, the mortality projections are used for several other purposes than for projecting the population, such as calculating future pensions according to the new pension system, where life expectancy improvements reduce the annual pensions.</p><p>The population projections show that the population will age regardless of plausible assumptions made about the demographic components births, deaths, immigration and emigration. Policies to affect these components may only marginally affect future ageing, and in some cases in the wrong direction. The only factor that may significantly affect the future ratio of the working to the non-working population, the potential support ratio, is that people work longer. This ratio will remain at the current level if the pension age is increased from the current 67 years to 78 years at the end of the century. This may be possible if the health of old persons continues to improve.</p>

This introductory article focuses on a new field in demography, the Demography of Conflict and Violence. A research programme on this field is proposed as a result of activities of the IUSSP Working Group on Demography of Conflict and Violence, in particular the Group's seminar in Norway in November 2003. The articles in this special issue of EJP are a selection of papers presented at the seminar. The first article presents new estimates of combat deaths in the world since 1946, whereas the second article looks at the role of demographic estimates in war crime proceedings at international criminal courts. The rest of the articles are concerned with the mortality consequences of political conflict in various settings. Another set of articles from the seminar is published in a special issue of the Journal of Peace Research. The articles are summarised and reviewed using the broader framework of issues inherent in the Demography of Conflict and Violence.

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