Prediction accuracy of pharmacokinetic parameters is often assessed using prediction fold error, i.e., being within 2-, 3-, or n-fold of observed values. However, published studies disagree on which fold error represents an accurate prediction. In addition, "observed data" from only one clinical study are often used as the gold standard for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) studies, despite data being subject to significant interstudy variability and subjective selection from various available reports. The current study involved analysis of published systemic clearance (CL) and volume of distribution at steady state (V ss ) values taken from over 200 clinical studies. These parameters were obtained for 17 different drugs after intravenous administration. Data were analyzed with emphasis on the appropriateness to use a parameter value from one particular clinical study to judge the performance of IVIVE and the ability of CL and V ss values obtained from one clinical study to "predict" the same values obtained in a different clinical study using the n-fold criteria for prediction accuracy. The twofold criteria method was of interest because it is widely used in IVIVE predictions. The analysis shows that in some cases the twofold criteria method is an unreasonable expectation when the observed data are obtained from studies with small sample size. A more reasonable approach would allow prediction criteria to include clinical study information such as sample size and the variance of the parameter of interest. A method is proposed that allows the "success" criteria to be linked to the measure of variation in the observed value.

Evaluation of a potential risk of metabolic drug–drug interactions (DDI) is of high importance in the clinical setting. In this study, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed for oxycodone and its two primary metabolites, oxymorphone and noroxycodone, in order to assess different DDI scenarios using published in vitro and in vivo data. Once developed and refined, the model was able to simulate pharmacokinetics of the three compounds and the DDI extent in case of coadministration with an inhibitor, as well as the oxymorphone concentration variation between CYP2D6 extensive metabolizers (EM) and poor metabolizers (PM). The reliability of the model was tested against published clinical studies monitoring different inhibitors and dose regimens, and all predicted area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) ratios were within the twofold acceptance range. This approach represents a strategy to evaluate the impact of coadministration of different CYP inhibitors using mechanistic incorporation of drug-dependent and system-dependent available in vitro and in vivo data.

Current formulations of combined oral contraceptives (COC) containing ethinylestradiol (EE) have ≤35 μg due to increased risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) with higher doses of EE. Low‐dose formulations however, have resulted in increased incidences of breakthrough bleeding and contraceptive failure, particularly when coadministered with inducers of cytochrome P450 enzymes (CYP). The developed physiologically based pharmacokinetic model quantitatively predicted the effect of CYP3A4 inhibition and induction on the pharmacokinetics of EE. The predicted Cmax and AUC ratios when coadministered with voriconazole, fluconazole, rifampicin, and carbamazepine were within 1.25 of the observed data. Based on published clinical data, an AUCss value of 1,000 pg/ml.h was selected as the threshold for breakthrough bleeding. Prospective application of the model in simulations of different doses of EE (20 μg, 35 μg, and 50 μg) identified percentages of the population at risk of breakthrough bleeding alone and with varying degrees of CYP modulation.

LicA encodes the enzyme phosphorylcholine kinase which catalyses the incorporation of phosphorylcholine (ChoP) into H. influenzae LPS. Expression of this gene is subject to phase variation, resulting in the spontaneous loss, or gain of phosphorylcholine (ChoP)-decorated LPS structures. To investigate the role of this phenomenon in the pathogenesis of invasive disease an H. influenzae mutant was constructed which lacked the ability to phase vary licA. This was achieved by introducing an in-frame deletion of the 5'-CAAT-3' repeats into licA using polymerase chain reaction. The resultant mutant, licADelta5'-CAAT-3', was unable to switch off expression of licA and constitutively expressed ChoP-decorated LPS structures, as judged by colony immunoblotting with Mabs 12D9 and HAS. This resulted in increased synthesis of high molecular mass LPS structures and the absence of non-ChoP-decorated LPS species as determined by T-SDS-PAGE analysis. Inability to switch off the expression of licA reduced the virulence of H. influenzae in an infant rat model of invasive disease and resulted in increased sensitivity to the bactericidal activity of serum in the presence of CRP. The ability to switch off the expression of licA through phase variation is therefore concluded to enhance the systemic survival of H. influenzae.